A Novel Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Adult Patients After Primary Surgery for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer: A Real-World Analysis Based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Database and External Validation in a Tertiary Center.

BACKGROUND

The present study aimed to construct and validate a nomogram that can be used to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC).

METHODS

A total of 7,129 adult patients with EOC were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2010 and 2015. Patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohorts (7:3). Cox regression was conducted to evaluate prognostic factors of CSS. The internal validation of the nomogram was performed using concordance index (C-index), AUC, calibration curves, and decision curve analyses (DCAs). Data from 53 adult EOC patients at Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University from 2008 to 2012 were collected for external verification. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to compare survival outcomes among risk subgroups.

RESULTS

Age, grade, histological types, stage, residual lesion size, number of regional lymph nodes resected, number of positive lymph nodes, and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for CSS. Based on the above factors, we constructed a nomogram. The C-indices of the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and external verification group were 0.763, 0.750, and 0.920, respectively. The calibration curve indicated good agreement between the nomogram prediction and actual survival. AUC and DCA results indicated great clinical usefulness of the nomogram. The differences in the Kaplan-Meier curves among different risk subgroups were statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

We constructed a nomogram to predict CSS in adult patients with EOC after primary surgery, which can assist in counseling and guiding treatment decision making.