Institute of Ecology and Environmental Studies, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.
Department of Geography, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria.
Spat Spatiotemporal Epidemiol. 2021 Jun;37:100417. doi: 10.1016/j.sste.2021.100417. Epub 2021 Mar 19.
This study investigated the spatio-temporal variations in the occurrence of COVID-19 (confirmed cases and deaths) in relation to climate fluctuations in 61 countries, scattered around the world, from December 31, 2019 to May 28, 2020. Logarithm transformation of the count variable (COVID-19 cases) was used in a multiple linear regression model to predict the potential effects of weather variables on the prevalence of the disease. The study revealed strong associations (-0.510 ≤ r ≤ -0.967; 0.519 ≤ r ≤ 0.999) between climatic variables and confirmed cases of COVID-19 in majority (68.85%) of the selected countries. It showed evidences of 1 to 7-day delays in the response of the infection to changes in weather pattern. Model simulations suggested that a unit fall in temperature and humidity could increase (0.04-18.70%) the infection in 19.67% and 16.39% of the countries, respectively, while a general reduction (-0.05 to 9.40%) in infection cases was projected in 14.75% countries with a unit drop in precipitation. In conclusion, the study suggests that effective public health interventions are crucial to containing the projected upsurge in COVID-19 cases during both cold and warm seasons in the southern and northern hemispheres.
本研究调查了 2019 年 12 月 31 日至 2020 年 5 月 28 日期间，全球 61 个国家 COVID-19（确诊病例和死亡病例）的发生与气候波动的时空变化。对数变换的计数变量（COVID-19 病例）用于多元线性回归模型，以预测天气变量对疾病流行的潜在影响。研究表明，在大多数（68.85%）选定国家中，气候变量与 COVID-19 确诊病例之间存在强烈关联（-0.510≤r≤-0.967；0.519≤r≤0.999）。研究结果表明，感染对天气模式变化的反应存在 1 至 7 天的延迟。模型模拟表明，温度和湿度每下降 1 单位，分别有 19.67%和 16.39%的国家感染人数增加（0.04-18.70%），而降水每下降 1 单位，预计 14.75%的国家感染人数将减少（-0.05 至 9.40%）。总之，该研究表明，在南半球和北半球的寒冷和温暖季节，有效的公共卫生干预措施对于控制 COVID-19 病例的预计激增至关重要。
