Scherbina Anna
Brandeis International Business School, Brandeis University, 415 South Street, Waltham, MA 02453 USA.
Econ Disaster Clim Chang. 2021;5(2):177-201. doi: 10.1007/s41885-021-00083-6. Epub 2021 May 8.
Though COVID vaccines have been available since December 2020, the rate at which they are administered remains slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, 203 thousand additional lives will be lost and the future cost of the pandemic will reach $1.3 trillion, or 6% of GDP. Using a cost-benefit analysis, I assess whether it is optimal for the United States to follow the lead of many European countries and introduce a nation-wide lockdown. I find that a lockdown would be indeed optimal and, depending on the assumptions, it should last between two and four weeks and will generate a net benefit of up to $653 billion.
尽管自2020年12月以来就有了新冠疫苗，但疫苗接种速度仍然缓慢，与此同时，这场大流行每天夺去的生命数量仍与9·11悲剧相当。我估计，按照承诺的疫苗接种速度，如果不实施额外的非药物干预措施，将会多失去20.3万条生命，而且这场大流行的未来成本将达到1.3万亿美元，占国内生产总值的6%。通过成本效益分析，我评估了美国效仿许多欧洲国家实施全国范围封锁是否是最优选择。我发现封锁确实是最优选择，根据不同假设，封锁应持续两到四周，并将产生高达6530亿美元的净收益。
