Callahan Christopher W, Mankin Justin S
Program in Ecology, Evolution, Environment and Society, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA.
Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH, USA.
Nature. 2025 Apr;640(8060):893-901. doi: 10.1038/s41586-025-08751-3. Epub 2025 Apr 23.
Will it ever be possible to sue anyone for damaging the climate? Twenty years after this question was first posed, we argue that the scientific case for climate liability is closed. Here we detail the scientific and legal implications of an 'end-to-end' attribution that links fossil fuel producers to specific damages from warming. Using scope 1 and 3 emissions data from major fossil fuel companies, peer-reviewed attribution methods and advances in empirical climate economics, we illustrate the trillions in economic losses attributable to the extreme heat caused by emissions from individual companies. Emissions linked to Chevron, the highest-emitting investor-owned company in our data, for example, very likely caused between US $791 billion and $3.6 trillion in heat-related losses over the period 1991-2020, disproportionately harming the tropical regions least culpable for warming. More broadly, we outline a transparent, reproducible and flexible framework that formalizes how end-to-end attribution could inform litigation by assessing whose emissions are responsible and for which harms. Drawing quantitative linkages between individual emitters and particularized harms is now feasible, making science no longer an obstacle to the justiciability of climate liability claims.
有可能起诉任何对气候造成破坏的人吗？在这个问题首次提出二十年后，我们认为气候责任的科学依据已经明确。在此，我们详细阐述了将化石燃料生产商与变暖造成的具体损害联系起来的“端到端”归因的科学和法律意义。利用主要化石燃料公司的第一类和第三类排放数据、同行评议的归因方法以及实证气候经济学的进展，我们说明了各公司排放导致的极端高温造成的数万亿美元经济损失。例如，在我们的数据中，排放最高的投资者所有公司雪佛龙的排放很可能在1991年至2020年期间造成了7910亿美元至3.6万亿美元与高温相关的损失，对热带地区造成了不成比例的伤害，而这些地区对气候变暖的责任最小。更广泛地说，我们概述了一个透明、可重复且灵活的框架，该框架通过评估谁的排放应负责以及造成了哪些损害，将端到端归因如何为诉讼提供信息的过程形式化。现在，在个体排放者与特定损害之间建立定量联系是可行的，这使得科学不再成为气候责任索赔可诉性的障碍。
