Medical School of Botucatu, São Paulo State University, Botucatu, 18618-687, Brazil.
Institute of Mathematics, Statistics, and Scientific Computing, University of Campinas, Campinas, 13083-859, Brazil.
Sci Rep. 2021 May 24;11(1):10760. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-90118-5.
In 2020, the world experienced its very first pandemic of the globalized era. A novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the causative agent of severe pneumonia and has rapidly spread through many nations, crashing health systems and leading a large number of people to death. In Brazil, the emergence of local epidemics in major metropolitan areas has always been a concern. In a vast and heterogeneous country, with regional disparities and climate diversity, several factors can modulate the dynamics of COVID-19. What should be the scenario for inner Brazil, and what can we do to control infection transmission in each of these locations? Here, a mathematical model is proposed to simulate disease transmission among individuals in several scenarios, differing by abiotic factors, social-economic factors, and effectiveness of mitigation strategies. The disease control relies on keeping all individuals' social distancing and detecting, followed by isolating, infected ones. The model reinforces social distancing as the most efficient method to control disease transmission. Moreover, it also shows that improving the detection and isolation of infected individuals can loosen this mitigation strategy. Finally, the effectiveness of control may be different across the country, and understanding it can help set up public health strategies.
2020 年，全球迎来了首个全球化时代的大流行病。一种新型冠状病毒，即严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 型（SARS-CoV-2），是导致严重肺炎的病原体，已迅速在许多国家传播，使卫生系统崩溃，并导致大量人员死亡。在巴西，主要大都市地区出现局部疫情一直令人担忧。在这个幅员辽阔、地域差异大、气候多样的国家，有几个因素可以调节 COVID-19 的动态。巴西内陆地区会出现什么情况？我们可以采取哪些措施来控制这些地区的感染传播？在这里，提出了一个数学模型来模拟几种情况下个体之间的疾病传播，这些情况因非生物因素、社会经济因素和缓解策略的有效性而异。疾病控制依赖于保持所有个体的社交距离，并对感染个体进行检测、随后隔离。该模型强化了社交距离作为控制疾病传播的最有效方法。此外，它还表明，提高对感染个体的检测和隔离能力可以放宽这种缓解策略。最后，控制的有效性可能因国家而异，了解这一点有助于制定公共卫生策略。
