Clinical Hospital of Botucatu Medical School (HCFMB), Botucatu, Brazil.
Department of Infectious Diseases, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Botucatu Medical School, Botucatu, Brazil.
Epidemiol Infect. 2020 Dec 2;148:e295. doi: 10.1017/S0950268820002927.
Two hundred days after the first confirmed case of COVID-19 in Brazil, the epidemic has rapidly spread in metropolitan areas and advanced throughout the countryside. We followed the temporal epidemic pattern at São Paulo State, the most populous of the country, the first to have a confirmed case of COVID-19, and the one with the most significant number of cases until now. We analysed the number of new cases per day in each regional health department and calculated the effective reproduction number (Rt) over time. Social distance measures, along with improvement in testing and isolating positive cases, general population mask-wearing and standard health security protocols for essential and non-essential activities, were adopted and impacted on slowing down epidemic velocity but were insufficient to stop transmission.
巴西出现首例新冠肺炎确诊病例 200 天后，疫情在大都市区迅速蔓延，并向农村地区蔓延。我们跟踪了该国人口最多、首例新冠肺炎确诊病例和迄今为止病例最多的圣保罗州的疫情发展模式。我们分析了每个地区卫生部门每天新增病例数，并计算了随时间变化的有效繁殖数（Rt）。采取了社会距离措施，包括改进检测和隔离阳性病例、全民佩戴口罩以及对基本和非基本活动的标准卫生安全协议，这些措施对减缓疫情传播速度产生了影响，但不足以阻止传播。
