Department of Engineering Mathematics, Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1QU, UK.
Bristol Veterinary School, Population Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1QU, UK.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2021 Jul 19;376(1829):20200272. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2020.0272. Epub 2021 May 31.
An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable human-to-human transmission in England. We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of COVID-19 in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to inform population sizes and movements, together with parameter estimates from the outbreak in China. We predict that the epidemic will peak 126 to 147 days (approx. 4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in the absence of controls. Assuming biological parameters remain unchanged and transmission persists from February, we expect the peak to occur in June. Starting location and model stochasticity have a minimal impact on peak timing. However, realistic parameter uncertainty leads to peak time estimates ranging from 78 to 241 days following sustained transmission. Seasonal changes in transmission rate can substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic. We provide initial estimates of the epidemic potential of COVID-19. These results can be refined with more precise parameters. Seasonal changes in transmission could shift the timing of the peak into winter, with important implications for healthcare capacity planning. This article is part of the theme issue 'Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.
一种新型冠状病毒的爆发于 2019 年 12 月 31 日首次在中国报告。截至 2020 年 2 月 9 日，包括英国在内的 25 个国家已报告病例。我们采用现有的国家级复合种群模型来捕捉 COVID-19 在英格兰和威尔士的传播。我们使用 2011 年的人口普查数据来告知人口规模和流动情况，并结合中国疫情的参数估计。我们预测，如果没有控制措施，在人与人之间传播开始后的 126 至 147 天（约 4 个月）内，疫情将达到高峰。假设生物学参数保持不变且传播持续到 2 月，我们预计高峰期将出现在 6 月。起始位置和模型随机性对高峰时间的影响最小。然而，现实的参数不确定性导致在持续传播后，高峰时间的估计范围在 78 到 241 天之间。传播率的季节性变化会极大地影响疫情的时间和规模。我们提供了 COVID-19 疫情潜在影响的初步估计。这些结果可以通过更精确的参数进行细化。传播季节性变化可能会将高峰期时间转移到冬季，这对医疗保健能力规划具有重要影响。本文是“塑造英国早期 COVID-19 大流行应对措施的模型”主题特刊的一部分。
