Chen Simiao, Prettner Klaus, Kuhn Michael, Bloom David E
Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Faculty of Medicine and University Hospital, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
J Econ Ageing. 2021 Oct;20:100328. doi: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2021.100328. Epub 2021 May 29.
To assess the economic burden of COVID-19 that would arise absent behavioral or policy responses under the herd immunity approach in the United States and compare it to the total burden that also accounts for estimates of the value of lives lost.
We use the trajectories of age-specific human and physical capital in the production process to calculate output changes based on a human capital-augmented production function. We also calculate the total burden that results when including the value of lives lost as calculated from mortality rates of COVID-19 and estimates for the value of a statistical life in the United States based on studies assessing individual's willingness to pay to avoid risks.
Our results indicate that the GDP loss associated with unmitigated COVID-19 would amount to a cumulative US$1.4 trillion by 2030 assuming that 60 percent of the population is infected over three years. This is equivalent to around 7.7 percent of GDP in 2019 (in constant 2010 US$) or an average tax on yearly output of 0.6 percent. After applying the value of a statistical life to account for the value of lives lost, our analyses show that the total burden can mount to between US$17 and 94 trillion over the next decade, which is equivalent to an annual tax burden between 8 and 43 percent.
Our results show that the United States would incur a sizeable burden if it adopted a non-interventionist herd immunity approach.
Research reported in this paper was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Project INV-006261), and the Sino-German Center for Research Promotion (Project C-0048), which is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Preparation of this article was also supported by the Value of Vaccination Research Network (VoVRN) through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant OPP1158136). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors.
评估在美国采用群体免疫方法且无行为或政策应对措施的情况下，新冠疫情所带来的经济负担，并将其与考虑了生命损失价值估计的总负担进行比较。
我们利用生产过程中特定年龄的人力和物质资本轨迹，基于人力资本增强型生产函数计算产出变化。我们还计算了将新冠死亡率计算得出的生命损失价值与基于评估个人规避风险支付意愿的美国统计生命价值估计值纳入后的总负担。
我们的结果表明，假设在三年内60%的人口被感染，到2030年，与未缓解的新冠疫情相关的国内生产总值损失将累计达1.4万亿美元。这相当于2019年国内生产总值的约7.7%（以2010年不变美元计算），或每年产出的平均0.6%的税收。在应用统计生命价值来考虑生命损失价值后，我们的分析表明，在未来十年，总负担可能高达17至94万亿美元，这相当于每年8%至43%的税收负担。
我们的结果表明，如果美国采取不干预的群体免疫方法，将产生相当大的负担。
本文所报告的研究得到了亚历山大·冯·洪堡基金会、比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会（项目INV - 006261）以及由德国研究基金会（DFG）和中国国家自然科学基金（NSFC）资助的中德研究促进中心（项目C - 0048）的支持。本文的撰写还得到了疫苗接种价值研究网络（VoVRN）通过比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会的一笔赠款（赠款OPP1158136）的支持。内容完全由作者负责。
