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印度新冠疫情封锁期过渡期间基于工作和非工作出行模式的建模

Modelling work- and non-work-based trip patterns during transition to lockdown period of COVID-19 pandemic in India.

作者信息

Pawar Digvijay S, Yadav Ankit Kumar, Choudhary Pushpa, Velaga Nagendra R

机构信息

Transportation Systems Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Hyderabad, Kandi, Sangareddy 502285, India.

Transportation Systems Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay, Powai, Mumbai 400 076, India.

出版信息

Travel Behav Soc. 2021 Jul;24:46-56. doi: 10.1016/j.tbs.2021.02.002. Epub 2021 Mar 2.

DOI:10.1016/j.tbs.2021.02.002
PMID:34745888
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8561416/
Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the transportation sector across the world. Implementation of lockdown (that includes restricted travel activities) is a prevention strategy executed by various governments to minimize the spread of COVID-19. India went into complete lockdown from 25th March 2020; however, change in commuter's travel behavior was observed from the third week of March (termed as transition to lockdown) due to pandemic fear. In total 1945 participants participated in the travel behaviour survey and their responses with respect to work-based and non-work-based trips during transition period were analysed to understand their adaptation towards COVID-19. The study also attempted to quantify the effects of influencing factors which can explain change in the commuters' travel behaviour. The findings revealed that one-year increment in traveller's age had 2% reduced probability of no travel during transition than pre-transition. For non-work-related travel, chances of lower travel frequency were significantly greater during the transition period as compared to pre-transition. Compared to the non-essential trips, the chances of reduced travel frequency for the essential trips were found to be lower by 92%. By examining these behavioural changes, the present study aims to assist the policymakers in understanding the dynamics of fluctuating travel demand with respect to trip purpose during pandemic situations like COVID-19.

摘要

新冠疫情对全球交通运输业产生了重大影响。实施封锁(包括限制出行活动)是各国政府为尽量减少新冠病毒传播而采取的一项预防策略。印度自2020年3月25日起进入全面封锁状态;然而,由于疫情恐慌,从3月的第三周(即向封锁过渡阶段)开始,通勤者的出行行为发生了变化。共有1945名参与者参与了出行行为调查,并对他们在过渡期间基于工作和非工作出行的回答进行了分析,以了解他们对新冠疫情的适应情况。该研究还试图量化影响因素的作用,这些因素可以解释通勤者出行行为的变化。研究结果显示,与过渡前相比,旅行者年龄每增加一岁,在过渡期间不出行的概率就降低2%。对于非工作相关出行,与过渡前相比,过渡期间出行频率降低的可能性显著更高。与非必要出行相比,必要出行频率降低的可能性低92%。通过研究这些行为变化,本研究旨在帮助政策制定者了解在新冠疫情等大流行情况下,出行需求随出行目的波动的动态情况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c90f/8561416/16d6428236e0/gr8_lrg.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c90f/8561416/6f087ac0d7a6/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c90f/8561416/9fd45c7f6ee2/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c90f/8561416/1b2d3c816b9c/gr3_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c90f/8561416/d55a1f1a2990/gr4_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c90f/8561416/152fbe5d8dbe/gr5_lrg.jpg
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