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新冠疫情后与石油和天然气贸易全球化:挑战、机遇、教训、监管及策略

Post-COVID-19 and globalization of oil and natural gas trade: Challenges, opportunities, lessons, regulations, and strategies.

作者信息

Norouzi Nima

机构信息

Department of Energy Engineering and Physics Amirkabir University of Technology Tehran Iran.

School of Law and political science, Art and Human sciences Department Islamic Azad University Tehran Iran.

出版信息

Int J Energy Res. 2021 Aug;45(10):14338-14356. doi: 10.1002/er.6762. Epub 2021 Apr 26.

Abstract

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak hit the global economy like a tsunami. Every aspect of human society, including the energy industry and market, is affected by this pandemic. The pandemic has affected prices, demand, supply, investment, and several other aspects of the energy sector, including the oil and gas industry. This article is aimed to analyze the impacts of COVID-19 on the oil and gas industry and give a perspective of the post-COVID-19 oil and gas market. Results of this article show that COVID-19 impacts the oil and gas industry. The short-term impact is nearly 25% decrease in petroleum consumption, slowly recovering to its former amount and even growing more. The long-term impacts are the 30% to 40% decrease in the CAPEX and R&D investments over the oil and gas market, which is a regional scale in the United States, caused oil exploitation projects to decrease from more than 800 in 2019 to 265 in 2021. And it is predicted to reduce the competitiveness of oil and gas vs other energy carriers such as ever price-decreasing renewable energies. Thus, the oil and gas industry has to change rapidly before losing a substantial energy market share. Finally, this article discusses acknowledging oil and gas trade as a part of World trade organization (WTO/ECT) regulations. And considering it a general energy commodity. An act that reduces the freedom of action of oil-exporting governments and great oil cartels and protects their interests in a globalizing competitive energy market.

摘要

冠状病毒(COVID-19)疫情如海啸般冲击了全球经济。人类社会的方方面面,包括能源行业和市场,都受到了这场大流行病的影响。这场大流行病影响了价格、需求、供应、投资以及能源领域的其他几个方面,包括石油和天然气行业。本文旨在分析COVID-19对石油和天然气行业的影响,并对COVID-19后的石油和天然气市场给出一个展望。本文的结果表明,COVID-19对石油和天然气行业产生了影响。短期影响是石油消费量下降近25%,随后缓慢恢复到之前的水平,甚至进一步增长。长期影响是美国区域范围内的石油和天然气市场资本支出和研发投资下降30%至40%,导致石油开采项目从2019年的800多个减少到2021年的265个。并且预计石油和天然气相对于其他能源载体(如价格不断下降的可再生能源)的竞争力将会降低。因此,石油和天然气行业必须在失去大量能源市场份额之前迅速做出改变。最后,本文讨论了将石油和天然气贸易视为世界贸易组织(WTO/ECT)规则的一部分,并将其视为一种普通能源商品。这一举措减少了石油出口国政府和大型石油卡特尔的行动自由,并在全球化的竞争性能源市场中保护了它们的利益。

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