Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Harvard Medical School, Global Clinical Scholars Research Training Program, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2021 Jul 15;16(7):e0254012. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0254012. eCollection 2021.
BACKGROUND: In response to the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), plenty of control measures were proposed. To assess the impact of current control measures on the number of new case indices 14 countries with the highest confirmed cases, highest mortality rate, and having a close relationship with the outbreak's origin; were selected and analyzed. METHODS: In the study, we analyzed the impact of five control measures, including centralized isolation of all confirmed cases, closure of schools, closure of public areas, closure of cities, and closure of borders of the 14 targeted countries according to their timing; by comparing its absolute effect average, its absolute effect cumulative, and its relative effect average. RESULTS: Our analysis determined that early centralized isolation of all confirmed cases was represented as a core intervention in significantly disrupting the pandemic's spread. This strategy helped in successfully controlling the early stage of the outbreak when the total number of cases were under 100, without the requirement of the closure of cities and public areas, which would impose a negative impact on the society and its economy. However, when the number of cases increased with the apparition of new clusters, coordination between centralized isolation and non-pharmaceutical interventions facilitated control of the crisis efficiently. CONCLUSION: Early centralized isolation of all confirmed cases should be implemented at the time of the first detected infectious case.
背景:为应对 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的传播,提出了大量控制措施。为评估当前控制措施对新发病例指数的影响,选择并分析了确诊病例最多、死亡率最高且与疫情起源关系密切的 14 个国家。
方法:本研究根据确诊病例的集中隔离、学校关闭、公共场所关闭、城市关闭和边境关闭这 5 种控制措施的实施时间,分析了 14 个目标国家的控制措施对新发病例的绝对效应平均值、绝对效应累积值和相对效应平均值的影响。
结果:我们的分析表明,早期集中隔离所有确诊病例是一项核心干预措施,可显著阻断疫情传播。在总病例数低于 100 例的早期阶段,该策略有助于成功控制疫情,无需采取城市和公共场所关闭等措施,因为这些措施会对社会及其经济造成负面影响。然而,随着新集群的出现,病例数量增加,集中隔离与非药物干预之间的协调有助于有效地控制危机。
结论:应在首次发现感染病例时实施早期集中隔离所有确诊病例的措施。
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