Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Brazilian School of Public and Business Administration (EBAPE), Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Nat Hum Behav. 2021 Sep;5(9):1145-1160. doi: 10.1038/s41562-021-01181-x. Epub 2021 Aug 3.
As the COVID-19 pandemic lingers, the possibility of 'pandemic fatigue' has raised worldwide concerns. Here, we examine whether there was a gradual reduction in adherence to protective behaviours against COVID-19 from March through December 2020, as hypothesized in expectations of fatigue. We considered self-report behaviours from representative samples of the populations of 14 countries (N = 238,797), as well as mobility and policy data for 124 countries. Our results show that changes in adherence were empirically meaningful and geographically widespread. While a low-cost and habituating behaviour (mask wearing) exhibited a linear rise in adherence, high-cost and sensitizing behaviours (physical distancing) declined, but this decline decelerated over time, with small rebounds seen in later months. Reductions in adherence to physical distancing showed little difference across societal groups, but were less intense in countries with high interpersonal trust. Alternative underlying mechanisms and policy implications are discussed.
随着 COVID-19 大流行的持续，“大流行疲劳”的可能性引起了全球关注。在这里，我们研究了从 2020 年 3 月到 12 月，人们是否按照预期的疲劳程度，逐渐减少了对 COVID-19 的防护行为。我们考虑了来自 14 个国家（N=238797）代表性人群样本的自我报告行为，以及 124 个国家的流动性和政策数据。我们的结果表明，遵守情况的变化在经验上是有意义的，而且在地理上也很广泛。虽然低成本和习惯行为（戴口罩）的遵守率呈线性上升，但高成本和敏感行为（身体距离）却下降了，但随着时间的推移，这种下降速度逐渐放缓，后期几个月出现了小的反弹。身体距离的遵守率在社会群体之间差异不大，但在人际信任度高的国家，遵守率的下降幅度较小。我们还讨论了其他潜在的机制和政策影响。
