Bragard Claude, Baptista Paula, Chatzivassiliou Elisavet, Di Serio Francesco, Gonthier Paolo, Jaques Miret Josep Anton, Fejer Justesen Annemarie, MacLeod Alan, Magnusson Christer Sven, Navas-Cortes Juan A, Parnell Stephen, Potting Roel, Reignault Philippe Lucien, Stefani Emilio, Thulke Hans-Hermann, Vicent Civera Antonio, Van der Werf Wopke, Yuen Jonathan, Zappalà Lucia, Gutierrez Andrew Paul, Loomans Antoon, Ponti Luigi, Crotta Matteo, Maiorano Andrea, Mosbach-Schulz Olaf, Rossi Eugenio, Stancanelli Giuseppe, Milonas Panagiotis
EFSA J. 2023 Oct 19;21(10):e08107. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2023.8107. eCollection 2023 Oct.
Following a request from the European Commission, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a quantitative pest risk assessment to assess whether the import of cut roses provides a pathway for the introduction of (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) into the EU. The assessment was limited to the entry and establishment steps. A pathway model was used to assess how many individuals would survive and emerge as adults from commercial or household wastes in an EU NUTS2 region climatically suitable in a specific season. This pathway model for entry consisted of three components: a cut roses distribution model, a developmental model and a waste model. Four scenarios of timing from initial disposal of the cut roses until waste treatment (3, 7, 14 and 28 days) were considered. The estimated median number of adults escaping per year from imported cut roses in all the climatically suitable NUTS2 regions of the EU varied from 49,867 (90% uncertainty between 5,298 and 234,393) up to 143,689 (90% uncertainty between 21,126 and 401,458) for the 3- and 28-day scenarios. Assuming that, on average, a successful mating will happen for every 435 escaping moths, the estimated median number of mated females per year from imported cut roses in all the climatically suitable NUTS2 regions of the EU would vary from 115 (90% uncertainty between 12 and 538) up to 330 (90% uncertainty between 49 and 923) for the 3- and 28-day scenarios. Due to the extreme polyphagia of , host availability will not be a limiting factor for establishment. Climatic suitability assessment, using a physiologically based demographic modelling approach, identified the coastline extending from the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula through the Mediterranean as area suitable for establishment of . This assessment indicates that cut roses provide a pathway for the introduction of into the EU.
应欧盟委员会的要求，欧洲食品安全局植物健康小组进行了一项有害生物定量风险评估，以评估进口切花玫瑰是否为 （鳞翅目：卷蛾科）传入欧盟提供了途径。该评估仅限于入境和定殖步骤。使用了一个途径模型来评估在特定季节气候适宜的欧盟NUTS2地区，有多少 个体能够从商业或家庭废物中存活并羽化为成虫。这个入境途径模型由三个部分组成：切花玫瑰分布模型、 发育模型和废物模型。考虑了从切花玫瑰初次丢弃到废物处理的四种时间情景（3天、7天、14天和28天）。在欧盟所有气候适宜的NUTS2地区，估计每年从进口切花玫瑰中逃出的成虫中位数在3天情景下为49,867只（90%不确定性区间为5,298至234,393只），在28天情景下为143,689只（90%不确定性区间为21,126至401,458只）。假设平均每435只逃出的蛾会成功交配一次，在欧盟所有气候适宜的NUTS2地区，估计每年从进口切花玫瑰中逃出的已交配雌蛾中位数在3天情景下为115只（90%不确定性区间为12至538只），在28天情景下为330只（90%不确定性区间为49至923只）。由于 的极端多食性，寄主可用性不会成为定殖的限制因素。使用基于生理的种群动态建模方法进行的气候适宜性评估确定，从伊比利亚半岛西北部延伸至地中海的海岸线为适合 定殖的区域。该评估表明，切花玫瑰为 将传入欧盟提供了一条途径。
