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热浪:气候变化研究中的一个热门话题。

Heat waves: a hot topic in climate change research.

作者信息

Marx Werner, Haunschild Robin, Bornmann Lutz

机构信息

Max Planck Institute for Solid State Research, Heisenbergstr. 1, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany.

Science Policy and Strategy Department, Max Planck Society, Administrative Headquarters, Hofgartenstr. 8, 80539 Munich, Germany.

出版信息

Theor Appl Climatol. 2021;146(1-2):781-800. doi: 10.1007/s00704-021-03758-y. Epub 2021 Sep 3.

Abstract

Research on heat waves (periods of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity) is a newly emerging research topic within the field of climate change research with high relevance for the whole of society. In this study, we analyzed the rapidly growing scientific literature dealing with heat waves. No summarizing overview has been published on this literature hitherto. We developed a suitable search query to retrieve the relevant literature covered by the Web of Science (WoS) as complete as possible and to exclude irrelevant literature ( = 8,011 papers). The time evolution of the publications shows that research dealing with heat waves is a highly dynamic research topic, doubling within about 5 years. An analysis of the thematic content reveals the most severe heat wave events within the recent decades (1995 and 2003), the cities and countries/regions affected (USA, Europe, and Australia), and the ecological and medical impacts (drought, urban heat islands, excess hospital admissions, and mortality). An alarming finding is that the limit for survivability may be reached at the end of the twenty-first century in many regions of the world due to the fatal combination of rising temperatures and humidity levels measured as "wet-bulb temperature" (WBT). Risk estimation and future strategies for adaptation to hot weather are major political issues. We identified 104 citation classics, which include fundamental early works of research on heat waves and more recent works (which are characterized by a relatively strong connection to climate change).

摘要

热浪(天气酷热难耐的时期,可能伴有高湿度)研究是气候变化研究领域中一个新兴的研究课题,与整个社会高度相关。在本研究中,我们分析了迅速增长的关于热浪的科学文献。迄今为止,尚未有对该文献的总结性综述发表。我们开发了一个合适的搜索查询,以尽可能完整地检索被科学引文索引(WoS)涵盖的相关文献,并排除无关文献(共8011篇论文)。出版物的时间演变表明,关于热浪的研究是一个高度动态的研究课题,大约每5年就会翻一番。对主题内容的分析揭示了近几十年来最严重的热浪事件(1995年和2003年)、受影响的城市和国家/地区(美国、欧洲和澳大利亚)以及生态和医学影响(干旱、城市热岛效应、医院超额收治和死亡率)。一个令人担忧的发现是,由于温度上升和以“湿球温度”(WBT)衡量的湿度水平的致命组合,到21世纪末,世界许多地区可能会达到生存能力的极限。风险评估和适应炎热天气的未来策略是主要的政治问题。我们确定了104篇被广泛引用的经典文献,其中包括关于热浪研究的早期基础著作以及更近的著作(其特点是与气候变化有相对较强的联系)。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2074/8414451/c722e30a51c9/704_2021_3758_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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