Chaves Luis Fernando, Friberg Mariel D, Hurtado Lisbeth A, Marín Rodríguez Rodrigo, O'Sullivan David, Bergmann Luke R
Vigilancia de la Salud, Ministerio de Salud, San José, San José, Costa Rica.
Unidad de Análisis Epidemiolόgico y Bioestadística, Instituto Conmemorativo Gorgas de Estudios de la Salud, Ciudad de Panamá, Panama.
Socioecon Plann Sci. 2022 Mar;80:101161. doi: 10.1016/j.seps.2021.101161. Epub 2021 Sep 29.
Mesoamerica and the Caribbean form a region comprised by middle- and low-income countries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic differently. Here, we ask whether the spread of COVID-19, measured using early epidemic growth rates (), reproduction numbers ( ), accumulated cases, and deaths, is influenced by how the 'used territories' across the regions have been differently shaped by uneven development, human movement and trade differences. Using an econometric approach, we found that trade openness increased cases and deaths, while the number of international cities connected at main airports increased , cases and deaths. Similarly, increases in concentration of imports, a sign of uneven development, coincided with increases in early epidemic growth and deaths. These results suggest that countries whose used territory was defined by a less uneven development were less likely to show exacerbated COVID-19 patterns of transmission. Health outcomes were worst in more trade-dependent countries, even after controlling for the impact of transmission prevention and mitigation policies, highlighting how structural effects of economic integration in used territories were associated with the initial COVID-19 spread in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean.
中美洲和加勒比地区构成了一个由中低收入国家组成的区域，这些国家受新冠疫情的影响各不相同。在此，我们探讨新冠疫情的传播情况，通过早期疫情增长率、再生数、累计病例和死亡人数来衡量，是否受到各地区“已利用领土”因不均衡发展、人口流动和贸易差异而形成的不同形态的影响。采用计量经济学方法，我们发现贸易开放度增加了病例数和死亡人数，而主要机场连接的国际城市数量增加了、病例数和死亡人数。同样，进口集中度的增加，这是不均衡发展的一个迹象，与早期疫情增长和死亡人数的增加同时出现。这些结果表明，已利用领土发展不均衡程度较低的国家，新冠病毒传播模式加剧的可能性较小。即使在控制了传播预防和缓解政策的影响之后，贸易依赖程度较高的国家的健康结果最差，这凸显了已利用领土经济一体化的结构效应与中美洲和加勒比地区新冠疫情初期传播之间的关联。
