Institute for Computational Biomedicine, JRC for Computational Biomedicine, RWTH Aachen University, University Hospital Aachen, Aachen, Germany.
Centre for Evidence-Based Healthcare, University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus and Carl Gustav Carus Faculty of Medicine, Technische Universität Dresden, Dresden, Germany.
Infection. 2021 Dec;49(6):1331-1335. doi: 10.1007/s15010-021-01713-7. Epub 2021 Oct 20.
A third SARS-CoV-2 infection wave has affected Germany from March 2021 until April 24th, until the ´Bundesnotbremse´ introduced nationwide shutdown measures. The ´Bundesnotbremse´ is the technical term which was used by the German government to describe nationwide shutdown measures to control the rising infection numbers. These measures included mainly contact restrictions on several level. This study investigates which effects locally dispersed pre- and post-´Bundesnotbremse´ measures had on the infection dynamics. We analyzed the variability and strength of the rates of the changes of weekly case numbers considering different regions, age groups, and contact restrictions. Regionally diverse measures slowed the rate of weekly increase by about 50% and about 75% in regions with stronger contact restrictions. The 'Bundesnotbremse' induced a coherent reduction of infection numbers across all German federal states and age groups throughout May 2021. The coherence of the infection dynamics after the 'Bundesnotbremse' indicates that these stronger measures induced the decrease of infection numbers. The regionally diverse non-pharmaceutical interventions before could only decelerate further spreading, but not prevent it alone.
自 2021 年 3 月至 4 月 24 日，德国经历了第三波 SARS-CoV-2 感染浪潮，直到德国联邦政府采取了全国范围的封锁措施，即所谓的“联邦刹车”。“联邦刹车”是德国政府用来描述控制不断上升的感染人数的全国范围封锁措施的技术术语。这些措施主要包括对不同层面的接触限制。本研究调查了在“联邦刹车”之前和之后局部分散的措施对感染动态的影响。我们分析了不同地区、年龄组和接触限制下每周病例数变化率的可变性和强度。区域性措施减缓了每周增长率约 50%，而接触限制较强的地区减缓了约 75%。2021 年 5 月，“联邦刹车”在德国所有联邦州和年龄组中引发了感染人数的一致减少。“联邦刹车”后感染动态的一致性表明，这些更强有力的措施导致了感染人数的减少。之前区域性的非药物干预措施只能减缓进一步传播，但不能单独预防。
