Urban Institute and School of Engineering, Kyushu University, 744 Motooka, Nishi-ku, Fukuoka, 819-0395, Japan.
Sci Rep. 2021 Oct 29;11(1):21320. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-00862-x.
Fine particulate matter (PM) mainly originates from combustion emissions. On-road transportation is considered one of the primary sources of PM emission. The relationship between on-road transportation and PM concentration varies temporally and spatially, and the estimation for this variation is important for policymaking. Here, we reveal the quantitative association of PM concentration with on-road transportation by the spatial panel Durbin model and the geographical and temporal weighted regression. We find that 6.17 billion kilometres (km) per km on-road transportation increase is associated with a 1-μg/m county-level PM concentration increase in the contiguous United States. On-road transportation marginally contributes to PM, only 1.09% on average. Approximately 3605 premature deaths are attributed to PM from on-road transportation in 2010, and about a total of 50,223 premature deaths ascribe to PM taking 6.49% from 2003 to 2016. Our findings shed light on the necessity of the county-level policies considering the temporal and spatial variability of the relationship to further mitigate PM from on-road transportation.
细颗粒物（PM）主要来源于燃烧排放。道路交通被认为是 PM 排放的主要来源之一。道路交通与 PM 浓度之间的关系在时间和空间上存在差异，对这种变化的估计对于决策制定很重要。在这里，我们通过空间面板 Durbin 模型和地理时空加权回归揭示了 PM 浓度与道路交通之间的定量关系。我们发现，在美国相邻县，每公里道路运输增加 61.7 亿公里，县级 PM 浓度就会增加 1μg/m。道路交通对 PM 的贡献微乎其微，平均仅为 1.09%。2010 年，道路交通产生的 PM 导致约 3605 人过早死亡，2003 年至 2016 年，道路交通产生的 PM 导致约 50223 人过早死亡，占比约 6.49%。我们的研究结果表明，有必要根据关系的时间和空间可变性制定县级政策，以进一步减少道路交通产生的 PM。
