Yang Chuxiao, Wu Haitao, Guo Yunxia, Hao Yu, Wang Zhaohua
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081 China.
NPJ Urban Sustain. 2022;2(1):33. doi: 10.1038/s42949-022-00078-6. Epub 2022 Dec 15.
How to control the global temperature rise within 1.5 °C in the post-COVID-19 era has attracted attention. Road transport accounts for nearly a quarter of global CO emissions, and the related sulfur dioxide (SO) emissions also trigger air pollution issues in population-intensive cities and areas. Many cities and states have announced a timetable for phasing out urban-based fossil fuel vehicles. By combining a Markov-chain model with a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the impacts of on-road energy structural change led by phasing out fossil fuel vehicles in the road transportation sector are evaluated. The impact of automobile emissions (both CO and SO) on the environment is evaluated, taking into consideration of variation between cities, regions, and countries. Two other major driving forces in addition to CO emissions reduction in promoting fossil fuel vehicles' transition toward net-zero carbon are identified and analyzed with multiple different indicators. Under the framework of the DSGE model, climate policy instruments' effects on economic development, energy consumption, and their link to economic and environmental resilience are evaluated under exogenous shocks as well.
如何在新冠疫情后时代将全球气温上升控制在1.5摄氏度以内已引起关注。道路运输占全球二氧化碳排放量的近四分之一，相关的二氧化硫排放也在人口密集的城市和地区引发空气污染问题。许多城市和州已宣布逐步淘汰城市化石燃料车辆的时间表。通过将马尔可夫链模型与动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型相结合，评估了道路运输部门淘汰化石燃料车辆所导致的道路能源结构变化的影响。考虑到城市、地区和国家之间的差异，评估了汽车排放（二氧化碳和二氧化硫）对环境的影响。还通过多种不同指标识别并分析了除减少二氧化碳排放之外，推动化石燃料车辆向净零碳转型的另外两个主要驱动力。在DSGE模型框架下，还评估了气候政策工具在外生冲击下对经济发展、能源消耗的影响以及它们与经济和环境复原力的联系。
