Monfort Samuel S, Cicchino Jessica B, Patton David
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, United States.
Arlington County Division of Transportation, United States.
J Transp Health. 2021 Dec;23:101289. doi: 10.1016/j.jth.2021.101289. Epub 2021 Oct 30.
One of the most consequential effects of the COVID-19 lockdowns was a dramatic reduction in travel during peak hours. Transportation modes also shifted-in particular, travel by car became more rare while bicycling saw a resurgence. Given that a typical year sees the most severe bicycle crashes in peak commuter traffic, the shift toward bicycle travel that occurred in 2020 will likely have been accompanied by unique changes in rider behavior (e.g., where and when they choose to ride) as well as the frequency and severity of vehicle-bicycle crashes.
The current study compared weekday bicycle traffic and crashes in Arlington, VA from March-December 2020 with the same period from years prior, 2013-2019. Bicycle traffic data were obtained from 16 embedded counters placed throughout the study area, in both off-road trails and on-road bike lanes.
We found that 2020 midday traffic nearly doubled compared to the year before, increasing from an average of 68 riders per hour to 120 (+76%). By contrast, morning traffic fell from an average of 87 riders per hour to just 45 (-49%). Change in evening traffic depended on the location of the counters: more evening bicycles were counted on off-road, multi-use trails (+6%) but fewer on on-road lanes (-27%). The changes to 2020 bicycle traffic patterns were also associated with a 28% reduction in bicycle injury crash rate per counted cyclist.
The reduced crash risk observed in 2020 was likely due in part to the reduction of morning, on-road bicycle travel, which past research has found to be particularly dangerous for riders. Conversely, the availability of multi-use off-road trails seems to have been a protective factor against bicycle-motor vehicle crash risk in the face of greater bicycle travel volume.
新冠疫情封锁措施带来的最重大影响之一，是高峰时段的出行量急剧减少。交通方式也发生了转变——尤其是驾车出行变得更为罕见，而骑自行车的人数则有所回升。鉴于在典型年份中，通勤高峰时段的自行车事故最为严重，2020年向自行车出行的转变可能伴随着骑行者行为的独特变化（例如，他们选择骑行的地点和时间）以及车辆与自行车碰撞事故的频率和严重程度的变化。
本研究将弗吉尼亚州阿灵顿2020年3月至12月工作日的自行车交通量和事故情况与2013 - 2019年同期进行了比较。自行车交通数据来自于分布在整个研究区域的16个嵌入式计数器，包括越野小径和道路上的自行车道。
我们发现，2020年中午的交通量相比前一年几乎翻了一番，从平均每小时68名骑行者增加到120名（增长76%）。相比之下，早上的交通量从平均每小时87名骑行者降至仅45名（下降49%）。傍晚交通量的变化取决于计数器的位置：在越野多用途小径上统计到的傍晚自行车数量有所增加（增长6%），但在道路车道上的数量减少（下降27%）。2020年自行车交通模式的变化还伴随着每统计一名骑行者的自行车伤害事故率降低28%。
2020年观察到的事故风险降低可能部分归因于早上道路上自行车出行量的减少，过去的研究发现这对骑行者特别危险。相反，面对更大的自行车出行量，多用途越野小径的存在似乎是降低自行车与机动车碰撞风险的一个保护因素。
