Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates.

Like many cities around the world, New York City is establishing policies to reduce CO emissions from all energy sectors by 2050. Understanding the impact of varying degrees of electric vehicle adoption and CO intensities on emissions reduction in the city is critical. Here, using a technology-rich, bottom-up, energy system optimization model, we analyse the cost and air emissions impacts of New York City's proposed CO reduction policies for the transportation sector through a scenario framework. Our analysis reveals that the electrification of light-duty vehicles at earlier periods is essential for deeper reductions in air emissions. When further combined with energy efficiency improvements, these actions contribute to CO reductions under the scenarios of more CO-intense electricity. Substantial reliance on fossil fuels and a need for structural change pose challenges to cost-effective CO reductions in the transportation sector. Here we find that uncertainties associated with decarbonization of the electric grid have a minimum influence on the cost-effectiveness of CO reduction pathways for the transportation sector.