Ou Yang, Kittner Noah, Babaee Samaneh, Smith Steven J, Nolte Christopher G, Loughlin Daniel H
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, USA.
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
Appl Energy. 2021 Oct 15;300:1-117364. doi: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117364.
While large-scale adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) globally would reduce carbon dioxide (CO) and traditional air pollutant emissions from the transportation sector, emissions from the electric sector, refineries, and potentially other sources would change in response. Here, a multi-sector human-Earth systems model is used to evaluate the net long-term emission implications of large-scale EV adoption in the US over widely differing pathways of the evolution of the electric sector. Our results indicate that high EV adoption would decrease net CO emissions through 2050, even for a scenario where all electric sector capacity additions through 2050 are fossil fuel technologies. Greater net CO reductions would be realized for scenarios that emphasize renewables or decarbonization of electricity production. Net air pollutant emission changes in 2050 are relatively small compared to expected overall decreases from recent levels to 2050. States participating in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative experience greater CO and air pollutant reductions on a percentage basis. These results suggest that coordinated, multi-sector planning can greatly enhance the climate and environmental benefits of EVs. Additional factors are identified that influence the net emission impacts of EVs, including the retirement of coal capacity, refinery operations under reduced gasoline demands, and price-induced fuel switching in residential heating and in the industrial sector.
虽然全球大规模采用电动汽车（EV）将减少交通运输部门的二氧化碳（CO）和传统空气污染物排放，但电力部门、炼油厂以及其他潜在来源的排放也会相应改变。在此，我们使用一个多部门人类 - 地球系统模型，来评估在美国电力部门发展路径差异很大的情况下，大规模采用电动汽车的长期净排放影响。我们的结果表明，即使在到2050年所有新增电力部门容量均为化石燃料技术的情景下，高电动汽车采用率也会在2050年前减少净CO排放。对于强调可再生能源或电力生产脱碳的情景，将实现更大幅度的净CO减排。与预计从近期水平到2050年整体下降相比，2050年净空气污染物排放变化相对较小。参与区域温室气体倡议的州，在CO和空气污染物减排百分比方面降幅更大。这些结果表明，协调一致的多部门规划能够极大地增强电动汽车的气候和环境效益。还确定了其他影响电动汽车净排放影响的因素，包括煤炭产能的退役、汽油需求减少情况下的炼油厂运营，以及住宅供暖和工业部门中价格引发的燃料转换。
