Yan Xingyue, Wang Shuchen, Duan Yu, Han Jing, Huang Donghua, Zhou Jian
Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China College of Forestry Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing China.
College of Biology and Environment Nanjing Forestry University Nanjing China.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Nov 3;11(22):16099-16112. doi: 10.1002/ece3.8288. eCollection 2021 Nov.
Climate change has a significant impact on the growth and distribution of vegetation worldwide. is widely distributed and considered a model species for studying the distribution and responses of shrub plants under climate change. These results can inform decision-making regarding shrub plant protection, management, and introduction of germplasm resources, and are of great importance for formulating ecological countermeasures to climate change in the future. We used the maximum entropy model to predict the change, scope expansion/reduction, centroid movement, and dominant climate factors that restrict the growth and distribution of . in China under current and future climate change scenarios. It was found that both precipitation and temperature affect the distribution of suitable habitat for . . Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used to select the feature combination (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM). After the establishment of the optimal model (FC = QP, RM = 0.5), the complexity and over-fitting degree of the model were low (delta AICc = 0, omission rate = 0.026, difference between training and testing area under the curve values = 0.0009), indicating that it had high accuracy in predicting the potential geographical distribution of . (area under the curve = 0.979). Overall, from the current period to future, the potential suitable habitat of this species in China expanded to the north. The greenhouse effect caused by an increase in CO emissions would not only increase the area of high-suitability habitat in Central China, but also expand the area of total suitable habitat in the north. Under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), the migration distance of the centroid was the longest (e.g., By 2070s, the centroids of total and highly suitable areas have shifted 186.15 km and 89.84 km, respectively).
气候变化对全球植被的生长和分布有着重大影响。[物种名称]分布广泛，被认为是研究气候变化下灌木植物分布和响应的模式物种。这些结果可为灌木植物保护、管理及种质资源引进的决策提供参考，对未来制定应对气候变化的生态对策具有重要意义。我们利用最大熵模型预测了[物种名称]在中国当前和未来气候变化情景下的变化、范围扩张/缩减、质心移动以及限制其生长和分布的主要气候因素。研究发现，降水和温度均影响[物种名称]适宜栖息地的分布。采用赤池信息准则（AICc）来选择特征组合（FC）和正则化乘数（RM）。在建立最优模型（FC = QP，RM = 0.5）后，模型的复杂度和过拟合程度较低（赤池信息准则差值 = 0，遗漏率 = 0.026，训练和测试曲线下面积值之差 = 0.0009），表明其在预测[物种名称]潜在地理分布方面具有较高准确性（曲线下面积 = 0.979）。总体而言，从当前时期到未来，该物种在中国的潜在适宜栖息地向北扩展。CO排放增加导致的温室效应不仅会增加中国中部高适宜栖息地的面积，还会扩大北方总适宜栖息地的面积。在最大温室气体排放情景（RCP8.5）下，质心的迁移距离最长（例如，到2070年代，总适宜面积和高适宜面积的质心分别移动了186.15公里和89.84公里）。
