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验证巴基斯坦环境菲利普斯曲线:ARDL 技术的新视角。

Validation of environmental Philips curve in Pakistan: a fresh insight through ARDL technique.

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, 210094, Nanjing, China.

School of Economics, Bahuddin Zakeriya University, Multan, Pakistan.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Apr;29(17):25060-25077. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-17099-w. Epub 2021 Nov 27.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-021-17099-w
PMID:34837618
Abstract

The tremendous increase of greenhouse gases puts adverse effects on environmental degradation, unemployment, and economic growth. Against this backdrop, and implementing the more recent estimation approach, the present study investigates the validity of the novel environmental Phillips curve (i.e., inverse relationship between unemployment and environmental degradation) carried by Kashem and Rahman (2020). The unique contribution of this research is to examine the three environmental indicators (CO, CH, and ecological footprint) as a dependent variable with the same independent variables, i.e., unemployment rate, energy consumption, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and globalization, from 1975 to 2014 in Pakistan. The results validate a negative relationship of unemployment rate with CO, CH, and ecological footprint in the long run that proves the existence of environment Philips curve for Pakistan. However, a positive association is observed for energy consumption and CO, CH, and ecological footprint. The positive connection of energy consumption and environmental indicators determined that not only CO emissions rather CH and ecological footprint play an equal role in environmental degradation. Furthermore, in the long run foreign direct investment improves environmental sustainability for CO, and ecological footprint thus proved the pollution halo hypothesis for Pakistan. Probing the effects of globalization that badly pollutes environmental sustainability. Therefore, the policymakers should focus on innovations and technological improvements to contemplate both environmental degradation and unemployment. There is a need for sudden actions for energy consumption plans in Pakistan for the nation's health, economic growth, and environmental sustainability.

摘要

温室气体的大量增加对环境恶化、失业和经济增长产生了不利影响。在此背景下,本研究采用最新的估计方法,检验了 Kashem 和 Rahman(2020 年)提出的新型环境菲利普斯曲线(即失业率与环境退化之间的反比关系)的有效性。本研究的独特贡献在于,检验了三个环境指标(CO、CH 和生态足迹)作为因变量与相同的自变量(失业率、能源消耗、经济增长、外国直接投资和全球化)之间的关系,时间范围为 1975 年至 2014 年的巴基斯坦。结果表明,失业率与 CO、CH 和生态足迹之间存在长期的负相关关系,证明了巴基斯坦存在环境菲利普斯曲线。然而,能源消耗与 CO、CH 和生态足迹之间存在正相关关系。能源消耗与环境指标之间的正相关关系表明,不仅 CO 排放,而且 CH 和生态足迹在环境退化中起着同等作用。此外,从长期来看,外国直接投资提高了 CO 和生态足迹的环境可持续性,从而证明了巴基斯坦存在污染光环假说。探究全球化对环境可持续性造成严重污染的影响。因此,政策制定者应关注创新和技术改进,同时考虑环境退化和失业问题。巴基斯坦需要立即采取行动,制定能源消耗计划,以保障国家的健康、经济增长和环境可持续性。

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