Haddad Eduardo A, Vieira Renato S, Araújo Inácio F, Ichihara Silvio M, Perobelli Fernando S, Bugarin Karina S S
Department of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Faculté de Gouvernance, Sciences Économiques et Sociales, Université Mohammed VI Polytechnique, Ben Guerir, Morocco.
Ann Reg Sci. 2022;68(2):501-525. doi: 10.1007/s00168-021-01085-8. Epub 2021 Nov 23.
As COVID-19-related health indicators improve after restrictive measures were set in place in different parts of the world, governments are expected to guide how to ease interventions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. Whereas epidemiologists track the progress of the disease using daily indicators to understand the pandemic better, economic activity indicators are usually available at a lower frequency and with considerable time lags. We propose and implement a timely trade-based regional economic activity indicator (EAI) that uses high-frequency traffic data to monitor daily sectoral economic activity in different sectors for the Brazilian State of São Paulo, a highly impacted region, overcoming the challenge of real-time assessment of the economy amid the COVID-19 outbreak. We then use this novel set of information combined with hospitalization rates to provide a first assessment of the São Paulo Plan, the COVID-19 exit strategy designed to gradually lifting interventions introduced to control the outbreak in the State. Available data show that, in its first 60 days, the phased strategy pursued in São Paulo has been effective in gradually reactivating economic activity while maintaining the adequate responsiveness of the healthcare system.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00168-021-01085-8.
随着世界各地实施限制措施后与新冠疫情相关的健康指标有所改善，预计各国政府将指导如何在降低疫情卷土重来风险的同时放松干预措施。虽然流行病学家利用每日指标追踪疾病进展以更好地了解疫情，但经济活动指标的可得频率通常较低且存在相当长的时间滞后。我们提出并实施了一个基于贸易的及时区域经济活动指标（EAI），该指标利用高频交通数据监测巴西圣保罗州（一个受影响严重的地区）不同部门的每日部门经济活动，克服了在新冠疫情爆发期间实时评估经济的挑战。然后，我们将这组新信息与住院率相结合，对圣保罗计划（旨在逐步解除为控制该州疫情而实施的干预措施的新冠疫情退出策略）进行首次评估。现有数据表明，在圣保罗实施该分阶段策略的头60天里，在逐步恢复经济活动的同时保持医疗系统的充分响应能力方面取得了成效。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s00168-021-01085-8获取的补充材料。
