La Torre Davide, Liuzzi Danilo, Maggistro Rosario, Marsiglio Simone
SKEMA Business School and Université Côte d'Azur, Sophia Antipolis, France.
Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan, Milan, Italy.
Dyn Games Appl. 2022;12(1):110-132. doi: 10.1007/s13235-021-00413-z. Epub 2021 Dec 2.
We analyze the implications of strategic interactions between two heterogeneous groups (i.e., young and old, men and women) in a macroeconomic-epidemiological framework. The interactions between groups determine the overall prevalence of a communicable disease, which in turn affects the level of economic activity. Individuals may lower their disease exposure by reducing their mobility, but since changing mobility patterns is costly, each group has an incentive to free ride negatively affecting the chances of disease containment at the aggregate level. By focusing on an early epidemic setting, we explicitly characterize the cooperative and noncooperative equilibria, determining how the inefficiency induced by noncooperation (i.e., failure to internalize epidemic externalities) depends both on economic and epidemiological parameters. We show that long-run eradication may be possible even in the absence of coordination, but coordination leads to a faster reduction in the number of infectives in finite time. Moreover, the inefficiency induced by noncooperation increases (decreases) with the factors increasing (decreasing) the pace of the disease spread.
我们在宏观经济-流行病学框架中分析了两个异质群体（即年轻人与老年人、男性与女性）之间战略互动的影响。群体之间的互动决定了传染病的总体流行率，而这反过来又会影响经济活动水平。个体可能会通过减少流动性来降低疾病暴露，但由于改变流动模式成本高昂，每个群体都有搭便车的动机，这在总体层面上对疾病控制的机会产生负面影响。通过关注疫情早期阶段，我们明确刻画了合作均衡和非合作均衡，确定了非合作导致的无效率（即未能将疫情外部性内部化）如何取决于经济和流行病学参数。我们表明，即使在缺乏协调的情况下，长期根除也有可能实现，但协调会在有限时间内导致感染者数量更快减少。此外，非合作导致的无效率会随着加快（减缓）疾病传播速度的因素而增加（减少）。
