Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Institute for Better Health, Trillium Health Partners, Mississauga, ON, Canada.
Can J Public Health. 2022 Feb;113(1):135-146. doi: 10.17269/s41997-021-00588-3. Epub 2021 Dec 7.
The Canadian workforce has experienced significant employment losses during the COVID-19 pandemic, in part as a result of non-pharmaceutical interventions to slow COVID-19 transmission. Health consequences are likely to result from these job losses, but without historical precedent for the current economic shutdown they are challenging to plan for. Our study aimed to use population risk models to quantify potential downstream health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and inform public health planning to minimize future health burden.
The impact of COVID-19 job losses on future premature mortality and high-resource health care utilization (HRU) was estimated using an economic model of Canadian COVID-19 lockdowns and validated population risk models. Five-year excess premature mortality and HRU were estimated by age and sex to describe employment-related health consequences of COVID-19 lockdowns in the Canadian population.
With federal income supplementation like the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit, we estimate that each month of economic lockdown will result in 5.6 new high-resource health care system users (HRUs), and 4.1 excess premature deaths, per 100,000, over the next 5 years. These effects were concentrated in ages 45-64, and among males 18-34. Without income supplementation, the health consequences were approximately twice as great in terms of both HRUs and premature deaths.
Employment losses associated with COVID-19 countermeasures may have downstream implications for health. Public health responses should consider financially vulnerable populations at high risk of downstream health outcomes.
在 COVID-19 大流行期间，加拿大劳动力经历了重大的就业岗位流失，部分原因是为了减缓 COVID-19 传播而采取了非药物干预措施。这些失业可能会带来健康后果，但由于目前的经济停摆没有历史先例，因此难以进行规划。我们的研究旨在使用人群风险模型来量化 COVID-19 大流行的潜在下游健康影响，并为公共卫生规划提供信息，以最大限度地减少未来的健康负担。
使用加拿大 COVID-19 封锁的经济模型和经过验证的人群风险模型，估计 COVID-19 失业对未来过早死亡和高资源医疗保健利用（HRU）的影响。按年龄和性别估计了五年的超额过早死亡率和 HRU，以描述 COVID-19 封锁对加拿大人口就业相关的健康后果。
在联邦收入补贴（如加拿大紧急响应福利）的情况下，我们估计每个月的经济封锁将导致每 10 万人新增 5.6 名高资源医疗保健系统使用者（HRUs）和 4.1 例过早死亡，在未来 5 年内。这些影响主要集中在 45-64 岁年龄段，以及 18-34 岁的男性。如果没有收入补贴，HRU 和过早死亡的健康后果大约是两倍。
与 COVID-19 对策相关的失业可能会对健康产生下游影响。公共卫生应对措施应考虑到面临下游健康结果高风险的经济脆弱人群。
