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政治决策如何塑造新冠病毒传播:意大利案例研究。

How political choices shaped Covid connectivity: The Italian case study.

机构信息

Institute of Bioengineering/Center for Neuroprosthetics EPFL-Ecole Polytechnique, Institute of Bioengineering Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.

Department of Radiology and Medical Informatics, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2021 Dec 10;16(12):e0261041. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0261041. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

The importance of implementing new methodologies to study the ever-increasing amount of Covid-19 data is apparent. The aftermath analysis of these data could inform us on how specific political decisions influenced the dynamics of the pandemic outbreak. In this paper we use the Italian outbreak as a case study, to study six different Covid indicators collected in twenty Italian regions. We define a new object, the Covidome, to investigate the network of functional Covid interactions between regions. We analyzed the Italian Covidome over the course of 2020, and found that Covid connectivity between regions follows a sharp North-South community gradient. Furthermore, we explored the Covidome dynamics and individuated differences in regional Covid connectivity between the first and second waves of the pandemic. These differences can be associated to the two different lockdown strategies adopted for the first and the second wave from the Italian government. Finally, we explored to what extent Covid connectivity was associated with the Italian geographical network, and found that Central regions were more tied to the structural constraints than Northern or Southern regions in the spread of the virus. We hope that this approach will be useful in gaining new insights on how political choices shaped Covid dynamics across nations.

摘要

实施新方法来研究不断增加的新冠病毒数据的重要性是显而易见的。对这些数据的后续分析可以让我们了解特定的政治决策如何影响疫情爆发的动态。在本文中,我们以意大利疫情爆发为例,研究了在意大利 20 个地区收集的六种不同的新冠指标。我们定义了一个新的对象,Covidome,来研究地区之间的新冠功能交互网络。我们分析了 2020 年意大利的 Covidome,发现地区之间的新冠关联性呈现出明显的南北社区梯度。此外,我们还探索了疫情的动态变化,并在疫情的第一波和第二波之间识别出了地区新冠关联性的差异。这些差异可以与意大利政府为第一波和第二波疫情采取的两种不同的封锁策略联系起来。最后,我们还探讨了新冠关联性与意大利地理网络之间的关系,发现与北部或南部地区相比,中部地区在病毒传播方面受到的结构性限制更多。我们希望这种方法能够有助于深入了解政治选择如何在各国塑造新冠疫情的动态。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4f99/8664190/4a6459a2ffc2/pone.0261041.g001.jpg

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