Inthamoussou Fernando A, Valenciaga Fernando, Núñez Sebastián, Garelli Fabricio
Grupo de Control Aplicado (GCA) LEICI. Facultad de Ingeniería, UNLP - CONICET, CC 91, CP 1900 La Plata, Buenos Aires Argentina.
J Healthc Inform Res. 2022;6(1):91-111. doi: 10.1007/s41666-021-00110-x. Epub 2021 Dec 7.
This work presents an extended and age-band compartmentalised SEIR model that allows describing the spread evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and evaluating the effect of different detection rates, vaccination strategies or immunity periods. The model splits up the population into fifteen age groups of 5 years each, linked through a statistical interaction matrix that includes seventeen health states within each age group. An age-dependent transmission rate takes into account infectious between the groups as well the effect of interventions such as quarantines and mobility restrictions. Further, the proposal includes a nonlinear switched controller for model tuning purposes guarantying a simple and fast adjusting process. To illustrate the model potentials, the particular case of COVID-19 evolution in Argentina is analysed by simulation of three scenarios: (i) different detection levels combined with mobility restrictions, (ii) vaccination campaigns with re-opening of activities and (iii) vaccination campaigns with possible reinfections. The results exhibit how the model can aid the authorities in the decision making process.
这项工作提出了一个扩展的、按年龄组划分的SEIR模型，该模型能够描述新冠病毒的传播演变，并评估不同检测率、疫苗接种策略或免疫期的效果。该模型将人群划分为15个年龄组，每组5岁，通过一个统计相互作用矩阵相连，该矩阵在每个年龄组内包含17种健康状态。一个与年龄相关的传播率考虑了不同年龄组之间的传染情况以及诸如隔离和行动限制等干预措施的影响。此外，该提议还包括一个用于模型调优的非线性切换控制器，以确保调整过程简单快速。为了说明该模型的潜力，通过模拟三种情景分析了阿根廷新冠疫情演变的具体情况：（i）不同检测水平与行动限制相结合；（ii）开展疫苗接种运动并重新开放活动；（iii）开展疫苗接种运动并可能出现再次感染。结果展示了该模型如何在决策过程中为当局提供帮助。
