Communicable Diseases Management Center, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, Iran.
Department of medical sciences, Sanandaj baranch, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj, Iran.
J Prev Med Hyg. 2021 Sep 15;62(3):E635-E634. doi: 10.15167/2421-4248/jpmh2021.62.3.1699. eCollection 2021 Sep.
Brucellosis is one of the most challenging health issues in many developing countries including Iran. The purpose of this study is to investigate the incidence and geographical distribution of brucellosis using Geographic Information System (GIS) and to predict its incidence in Iran in 2021.
This is a descriptive-analytical cross-sectional study, which contains spatial and climatic information along with the prevalence rate of brucellosis in Iran. Disease information was obtained from the National Center for Infectious Diseases Management during 2011-2015. Then, Arc GIS version 9.3 was used to plot the geographical maps for the incidence and frequency of the disease. Using the Raster calculator tool, the disease prediction map for the future was plotted. For proper spatial distribution of hot and cold spots, Getis-Ord-Gi statistic was employed.
The highest incidence of brucellosis during 2009-2015 was observed in the western provinces of Iran (North Khorasan, South Khorasan and Razavi Khorasan provinces). The incidence of brucellosis in Iran decreased from 2009 to 2011 but it exhibited an increasing trend from 2011 to 2014. The provinces of Kurdistan, Lorestan, Ilam, Zanjan and Kermanshah may be among the hot spots in terms of brucellosis incidence in 2021.
We predicted significant variations in brucellosis risk distribution in Iran in the coming years. In the western and northwestern provinces, which are among the high risk areas for the incidence of this disease in the future, this disease can pose a serious health threat to the residents of these areas.
布鲁氏菌病是包括伊朗在内的许多发展中国家面临的最具挑战性的健康问题之一。本研究旨在利用地理信息系统（GIS）调查布鲁氏菌病的发病率和地理分布，并预测 2021 年伊朗的发病率。
这是一项描述性分析性的横断面研究，包含了伊朗的空间和气候信息以及布鲁氏菌病的流行率。疾病信息是在 2011 年至 2015 年期间从国家传染病管理中心获得的。然后，使用 ArcGIS 版本 9.3 绘制疾病发病率和频率的地理图。使用栅格计算器工具绘制未来疾病预测图。为了正确地进行热点和冷点的空间分布，采用了 Getis-Ord-Gi 统计量。
2009-2015 年期间，伊朗西部省份（北呼罗珊、南呼罗珊和拉扎维呼罗珊省）布鲁氏菌病发病率最高。伊朗的布鲁氏菌病发病率从 2009 年到 2011 年下降，但从 2011 年到 2014 年呈上升趋势。库尔德斯坦、洛雷斯坦、伊拉姆、赞詹和克尔曼沙赫省可能是 2021 年布鲁氏菌病发病率的热点地区。
我们预测，在未来几年，伊朗布鲁氏菌病风险分布将发生显著变化。在未来发病率高的西部和西北部省份，这种疾病可能会对这些地区的居民构成严重的健康威胁。
