State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, 361102, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China.
State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen City, 361102, Fujian Province, People's Republic of China; School of Journalism and Communication, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, People's Republic of China.
Travel Med Infect Dis. 2022 Jan-Feb;45:102243. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102243. Epub 2021 Dec 22.
In this study, we aimed to quantify the contribution of different transmission routes of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and determine its transmissibility.
Based on the natural history and transmission features of MERS in different countries, a susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/death (SEIARD) model and a multi-route dynamic model (MMDM). The SEIARD model and MMDM were adopted to simulate MERS in South Korea and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Data on reported MERS cases in the two countries were obtained from the World Health Organization. Thereafter, the next generation matrix method was employed to derive the equation for the basic reproduction number (R), and the model fitting procedure was adopted to calculate the R values corresponding to these different countries.
In South Korea, 'Person-to-Person' transmission was identified as the main mode of MERS transmission in healthcare settings, while in Saudi Arabia, in addition to 'Person-to-Person' transmission, 'Host-to-Host' and 'Host-to-Person' transmission also occurred under certain scenarios, with camels being the main host. Further, the fitting results showed that the SEIARD model and MMDM fitted the data well. The mean R value was 8.59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0-28.02) for MERS in South Korea, and for MERS in Saudi Arabia, it was 1.15 and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.86-1.44) for the 'Person-to-Person' and 'Camel-to-Camel' transmission routes, respectively.
The SEIARD and MMDM model can be used to simulate the transmission of MERS in different countries. Additionally, in Saudi Arabia, the transmissibility of MERS was almost the same among hosts (camels) and humans.
本研究旨在量化中东呼吸综合征（MERS）不同传播途径的贡献，并确定其传染性。
根据 MERS 在不同国家的自然史和传播特征，采用易感-暴露-症状-无症状-恢复/死亡（SEIARD）模型和多途径动态模型（MMDM）。采用 SEIARD 模型和 MMDM 分别模拟韩国和沙特阿拉伯的 MERS。从世界卫生组织获取两国报告的 MERS 病例数据。然后，采用下一代矩阵法推导出基本繁殖数（R）的方程，并采用模型拟合程序计算这些不同国家对应的 R 值。
在韩国，“人与人”传播被确定为医疗机构中 MERS 传播的主要模式，而在沙特阿拉伯，除“人与人”传播外，在某些情况下还发生“宿主-宿主”和“宿主-人”传播，骆驼是主要宿主。此外，拟合结果表明，SEIARD 模型和 MMDM 拟合数据良好。韩国 MERS 的平均 R 值为 8.59（95%置信区间[CI]：0-28.02），沙特阿拉伯的 R 值分别为 1.15 和 1.02（95%CI：0.86-1.44），用于“人与人”和“骆驼-骆驼”传播途径。
SEIARD 和 MMDM 模型可用于模拟不同国家 MERS 的传播。此外，在沙特阿拉伯，MERS 在宿主（骆驼）和人类之间的传染性几乎相同。
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