Programa de Pós Graduação em Informática Aplicada, Universidade de Fortaleza, Fortaleza, Ceará, 60811-905, Brasil.
Departamento de Física, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Fortaleza, Ceará, 60455-760, Brasil.
Sci Rep. 2021 Dec 27;11(1):24443. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-03998-y.
We investigate, through a data-driven contact tracing model, the transmission of COVID-19 inside buses during distinct phases of the pandemic in a large Brazilian city. From this microscopic approach, we recover the networks of close contacts within consecutive time windows. A longitudinal comparison is then performed by upscaling the traced contacts with the transmission computed from a mean-field compartmental model for the entire city. Our results show that the effective reproduction numbers inside the buses, [Formula: see text], and in the city, [Formula: see text], followed a compatible behavior during the first wave of the local outbreak. Moreover, by distinguishing the close contacts of healthcare workers in the buses, we discovered that their transmission, [Formula: see text], during the same period, was systematically higher than [Formula: see text]. This result reinforces the need for special public transportation policies for highly exposed groups of people.
我们通过一个数据驱动的接触者追踪模型,研究了在巴西一个大城市的大流行的不同阶段,COVID-19 在公共汽车内的传播。通过这种微观方法,我们在连续的时间窗口内恢复了密切接触者的网络。然后,通过用整个城市的平均场房室模型计算的传播来扩展追踪到的接触者,对 traced contacts 进行纵向比较。我们的结果表明,公共汽车内的有效繁殖数 [Formula: see text] 和城市内的有效繁殖数 [Formula: see text] 在当地疫情的第一波中表现出一致的行为。此外,通过区分公共汽车上医护人员的密切接触者,我们发现他们在同一时期的传播 [Formula: see text] 系统地高于 [Formula: see text]。这一结果强化了为高暴露人群制定特殊公共交通政策的必要性。