Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Sci Rep. 2022 Jan 6;12(1):75. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-03358-w.
We characterized > 150 countries' resilience to COVID-19 as the nationwide decay rate of daily cases or deaths from peak levels. Resilience to COVID-19 varies by a factor of ~ 40 between countries for cases/capita and ~ 25 for deaths/capita. Trust within society is positively correlated with country-level resilience to COVID-19, as is the adaptive increase in stringency of government interventions when epidemic waves occur. By contrast, countries where governments maintain greater background stringency tend to have lower trust within society and tend to be less resilient. All countries where > 40% agree "most people can be trusted" achieve a near complete reduction of new cases and deaths, but so do several less-trusting societies. As the pandemic progressed, resilience tended to decline, as adaptive increases in stringency also declined. These results add to evidence that trust can improve resilience to epidemics and other unexpected disruptions, of which COVID-19 is unlikely to be the last.
我们将 150 多个国家对 COVID-19 的弹性定义为每日病例或死亡人数从峰值下降的全国速度。各国的 COVID-19 病例/人均弹性差异约为 40 倍，死亡/人均弹性差异约为 25 倍。社会内部的信任与国家层面的 COVID-19 弹性呈正相关，当疫情波出现时，政府干预措施的适应性增强也是如此。相比之下，政府维持更高背景严格性的国家往往社会内部信任度较低，弹性也较低。所有同意“大多数人可以被信任”的国家比例>40%的国家都实现了新病例和死亡人数的近乎完全减少，但一些信任度较低的社会也是如此。随着大流行的发展，弹性往往会下降，因为严格性的适应性增强也会下降。这些结果进一步证明了信任可以提高对流行病和其他意外破坏的弹性，而 COVID-19 不太可能是最后一次。
