Mkala Elijah Mbandi, Mwanzia Virginia, Nzei Johh, Oluoch Wyclife Agumba, Ngarega Boniface K, Wanga Vincent Okello, Oulo Milicent Akinyi, Ngarega Boniface K, Munyao Fredrick, Kilingo Flory Mkangombe, Rono Penninah, Waswa Emmanuel Nyongesa, Mutinda Elizabeth Syowai, Ochieng Clintone Onyango, Mwachala Geoffrey, Hu Guang-Wan, Wang Qing-Feng, Katunge Jacinta Kaweze, Victoire Calmina Izabayo
CAS Key Laboratory of Plant Germplasm Enhancement and Specialty Agriculture, Wuhan Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Sino-Africa Joint Research Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, CN-430074, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Jun 21;9(6):e17405. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17405. eCollection 2023 Jun.
Globally, endemic species and natural habitats have been significantly impacted by climate change, and further considerable impacts are predicted. Therefore, understanding how endemic species are impacted by climate change can aid in advancing the necessary conservation initiatives. The use of niche modeling is becoming a popular topic in biological conservation to forecast changes in species distributions under various climate change scenarios. This study used the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator version 1 (ACCESS-CM2) general circulation model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) to model the current distribution of suitable habitat for the four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to East Africa (EA), to determine the impact of climate change on their suitable habitat in the years 2050 (average for 2041-2060) and 2070 (average for 2061-2080). Two shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) SSP370 and SSP585 were used to project the contraction and expansion of suitable habitats for , and endemic to Kenya and Tanzania in EA. The current distribution for all four species is highly influenced by precipitation, temperature, and environmental factors (population, potential evapotranspiration, and aridity index). Although the loss of the original suitable habitat is anticipated to be significant, appropriate habitat expansion and contraction are projections for all species. More than 70% and 40% of the original habitats of and are predicted to be destroyed by climate change, respectively. Based on our research, we suggest that areas that are expected to shrink owing to climate change be classified as important protection zones for the preservation of Annonaceae species.
在全球范围内，特有物种和自然栖息地受到气候变化的显著影响，预计还会有更大的影响。因此，了解特有物种如何受到气候变化的影响有助于推进必要的保护举措。生态位建模的应用正成为生物保护领域的一个热门话题，用于预测各种气候变化情景下物种分布的变化。本研究使用耦合模式比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）的澳大利亚社区气候与地球系统模拟器版本1（ACCESS-CM2）通用环流模型，对东非特有的四种受威胁番荔枝科物种的适宜栖息地当前分布进行建模，以确定气候变化对其在2050年（2041 - 2060年平均值）和2070年（2061 - 2080年平均值）适宜栖息地的影响。使用两种共享社会经济路径（SSP）SSP370和SSP585来预测东非肯尼亚和坦桑尼亚特有的、和适宜栖息地的收缩与扩张情况。所有四种物种的当前分布都受到降水、温度和环境因素（人口、潜在蒸散和干旱指数）的高度影响。尽管预计原始适宜栖息地的丧失将很显著，但所有物种都有适宜栖息地扩张和收缩的预测情况。预计气候变化将分别破坏和超过70%和40%的原始栖息地。基于我们的研究，我们建议将因气候变化预计会缩小的区域划定为保护番荔枝科物种的重要保护区。
