Decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions from agricultural economic growth in China's Yangtze River economic belt.

In this study, carbon emissions from agricultural energy consumption (CEAEC) are fully analyzed using data from the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YEB) between 2000 and 2017. First, generalized LMDI is adopted to decompose the drivers of CEAEC into five components. Then, the decoupling indicator and the decoupling effort indicator are constructed to quantify the decoupling degrees and examine the government's emission reduction efforts, respectively. The results show that (1) CEAEC in the YEB has shown a phased increase, reaching a peak at 1732.2510t in 2012. Except for some decreases found in Shanghai, Chongqing, and Guizhou, it is shown that all provinces' CEAEC have risen to varying degrees. In contrast, the intensity of CEAEC in the YEB has been declining since 2005. (2) The economic output effect acts as the major contributor to the growth of CEAEC, followed by the population effect. In contrast, both the energy intensity effect and the energy structure effect are the primary reasons for reductions in CEAEC. The spatial difference in CEAEC in the YEB increased significantly from 2000 to 2017. (3) There was an alternating change from decoupling to coupling and then to negative decoupling from 2000 to 2017. Based on the conclusions mentioned above, it is proposed that the formulation of low-carbon agricultural development strategies should consider the structural adjustment of agricultural energy consumption and the advancements of agricultural technology.