Noureen Shabana, Mahmood Zafar
School of Social Sciences and Humanities (S3H), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Sector H-12, Pakistan.
Heliyon. 2022 Jan 21;8(1):e08779. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e08779. eCollection 2022 Jan.
This paper measures the trends, specifically for exporters, in bilateral trade costs and more specifically for costs associated with policy barriers. The study further examines the effects of different trade cost components on bilateral export flows via the dynamic panel gravity model. Empirical evidence shows that trade costs generally have a declining trend globally, however, in the case of emerging countries, this rate of decline is very low. The costs associated with non-tariff barriers in emerging countries have a greater role in the continuation of higher trade costs, in comparison to tariff barriers' costs. Likewise, the two-steps system GMM model's results suggest that the infrastructure quality, transportation costs, volatility of exchange rate, and uncertainty in time (days) delay are major hurdles in the sustainable growth of exports and indeed have rendered the exports uncompetitive in the world market, those are also sturdily supported by the prediction of the theory.
本文衡量了双边贸易成本的趋势，特别是针对出口商而言，更具体地说是与政策壁垒相关的成本。该研究进一步通过动态面板引力模型考察了不同贸易成本组成部分对双边出口流量的影响。实证证据表明，全球贸易成本总体呈下降趋势，然而，在新兴国家的情况下，这种下降速度非常缓慢。与关税壁垒成本相比，新兴国家与非关税壁垒相关的成本在持续较高的贸易成本中发挥着更大作用。同样，两步系统广义矩估计模型的结果表明，基础设施质量、运输成本、汇率波动以及时间（天数）延迟的不确定性是出口可持续增长的主要障碍，实际上也使出口在世界市场上缺乏竞争力，这些也得到了理论预测的有力支持。
