Yang Juan, Yu Shiwei, Sun Ya-Fang
Center for Energy Environmental Management and Decision-making, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
iScience. 2024 Jul 19;27(8):110541. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110541. eCollection 2024 Aug 16.
Economic sectors are pivotal in achieving China's dual carbon goals; nevertheless, the combined impact of industrial and energy consumption structures on sectors' peak pathways remains unresolved. We extend the optimization of separate industrial and energy structures to a multi-objective dynamic input-output optimization model. Findings indicate the following. (1) China's energy-related CO emissions are projected to peak in 2028, reaching a volume of 10.06-10.25 Gt. The contribution of industrial structure upgrading to this peak is three times greater than that of energy structure transformation. (2) Approximately 40% of sectors can delay their peaks until after 2030 without impeding China's overall peaking before 2030. (3) Compared with the single objective of minimizing CO emissions, China can not only achieve its carbon peak earlier but also enhance its average annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates by more than 0.26 percentage points and increase the non-fossil energy use's share by at least 2.78%.
经济部门在实现中国的双碳目标中起着关键作用；然而，产业和能源消费结构对各部门达峰路径的综合影响仍未得到解决。我们将单独的产业和能源结构优化扩展到一个多目标动态投入产出优化模型。研究结果表明如下：（1）预计中国与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量将在2028年达到峰值，达到10.06 - 10.25亿吨。产业结构升级对这一峰值的贡献是能源结构转型的三倍。（2）约40%的部门可以将其峰值推迟到2030年以后，而不会阻碍中国在2030年前整体达峰。（3）与将二氧化碳排放量降至最低的单一目标相比，中国不仅可以更早实现碳达峰，还可以将其年均国内生产总值（GDP）增长率提高超过0.26个百分点，并将非化石能源使用占比提高至少2.78%。
