Pollock Benjamin D, Willits-Smith Amelia M, Heller Martin C, Bazzano Lydia A, Rose Donald
School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, 1440 Canal Street, Suite 2200, New Orleans, LA70112, USA.
Robert D. and Patricia E. Kern Center for the Science of Health Care Delivery, Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, FL, USA.
Public Health Nutr. 2022 Aug;25(8):2322-2328. doi: 10.1017/S1368980022000830. Epub 2022 Mar 31.
Are diets with a greater environmental impact less healthy? This is a key question for nutrition policy, but previous research does not provide a clear answer. To address this, our objective here was to test whether American diets with the highest carbon footprints predicted greater population-level mortality from diet-related chronic disease than those with the lowest.
Baseline dietary recall data were combined with a database of greenhouse gases emitted in the production of foods to estimate a carbon footprint for each diet. Diets were ranked on their carbon footprints and those in the highest and lowest quintiles were studied here. Preventable Risk Integrated Model (PRIME), an epidemiological modelling software, was used to assess CVD and cancer mortality for a simulated dietary change from the highest to the lowest impact diets. The diet-mortality relationships used by PRIME came from published meta-analyses of randomised controlled trials and prospective cohort studies.
USA.
Baseline diets came from adults ( 12 865) in the nationally representative 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
A simulated change at the population level from the highest to the lowest carbon footprint diets resulted in 23 739 (95 % CI 20 349, 27 065) fewer annual deaths from CVD and cancer. This represents a 1·83 % (95 % CI 1·57 %, 2·08 %) decrease in total deaths. About 95 % of deaths averted were from CVD.
Diets with the highest carbon footprints were associated with a greater risk of mortality than the lowest, suggesting that dietary guidance could incorporate sustainability information to reinforce health messaging.
对环境影响较大的饮食是否更不健康？这是营养政策的一个关键问题，但先前的研究并未给出明确答案。为解决这一问题，我们在此的目标是测试碳足迹最高的美国饮食是否比碳足迹最低的饮食在与饮食相关的慢性病导致的总体人群死亡率方面更高。
将基线饮食回忆数据与食品生产过程中排放的温室气体数据库相结合，以估算每种饮食的碳足迹。根据碳足迹对饮食进行排名，并对最高和最低五分位数的饮食进行研究。使用流行病学建模软件可预防风险综合模型（PRIME）来评估从最高影响饮食到最低影响饮食的模拟饮食变化导致的心血管疾病（CVD）和癌症死亡率。PRIME使用的饮食与死亡率关系来自已发表的随机对照试验和前瞻性队列研究的荟萃分析。
美国。
基线饮食来自具有全国代表性的2005 - 2010年国家健康与营养检查调查中的成年人（12865名）。
在人群层面模拟从最高碳足迹饮食转变为最低碳足迹饮食，每年因心血管疾病和癌症导致的死亡减少23739例（95%可信区间20349，27065）。这相当于总死亡人数减少1.83%（95%可信区间1.57%，2.08%）。避免的死亡中约95%来自心血管疾病。
碳足迹最高的饮食与比最低碳足迹饮食更高的死亡风险相关，这表明饮食指南可以纳入可持续性信息以强化健康信息。
