School of Management and Electronic Business, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.
School of Statistics and Mathematics, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, China.
Front Public Health. 2022 Mar 11;10:842904. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.842904. eCollection 2022.
COVID-19 that broke out at the end of 2019 continues to spread globally, with frequent occurrence of variant disease strains, thus epidemic prevention and control become a kind of routine job. At present, due to the prevention and control measures such as maintaining social distance and community blockades, there is a boom in material purchases in many places, which not only seriously endangers social order and public environmental safety, but also easily leads to the interruption of the supply chain and the shortage of social materials. This article aims to study the intervention methods to curb the spread and spread of panic buying behavior. Firstly, through crawler technology and LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) topic model, this article analyzes the intervention measures taken by various social forces in China to curb the spread of panic buying, and summarizes the multi-channel intervention measures including online and offline forms. Secondly, through the multi-Agent Monte Carlo method, the targeted intervention mechanism is supplemented in each propagation link of the panic buying propagation model, and a new social intervention model of panic buying under sudden epidemic is constructed. Then, through MATLAB modeling and simulation, the main factors affecting panic buying intervention are discussed. The simulation results show that: (1) The single plan with the best intervention effect is the supply monitoring. While the official response can play an immediate inhibitory effect, but it is affected by credibility and timeliness. The intervention effect of psychological counseling is limited, and it generally needs to be used in combination with other measures. (2) The combination strategy with the best intervention effect is "supply monitoring + official response + psychological counseling," and the worst is "information review and guidance + psychological counseling." Supply monitoring is a key measure to curb panic buying. At the same time, "information review and guidance" will have a certain counter-effect in the combined strategy. Finally, the effectiveness and universality of the proposed model are verified by examples of China and Britain.
2019 年底爆发的 COVID-19 继续在全球范围内传播，变异病株频繁出现，因此疫情防控成为一种常规工作。目前，由于保持社交距离和社区封锁等防控措施，许多地方出现了物资购买热潮，这不仅严重危及社会秩序和公共环境安全，还容易导致供应链中断和社会物资短缺。本文旨在研究遏制恐慌性购买行为传播和蔓延的干预方法。首先，通过爬虫技术和 LDA（潜在狄利克雷分配）主题模型，分析中国各社会力量采取的遏制恐慌性购买蔓延的干预措施，总结包括线上和线下形式在内的多渠道干预措施。其次，通过多智能体蒙特卡罗方法，在恐慌性购买传播模型的每个传播环节中补充有针对性的干预机制，构建突发疫情下恐慌性购买的新社会干预模型。然后，通过 MATLAB 建模和仿真，讨论影响恐慌性购买干预的主要因素。仿真结果表明：（1）干预效果最好的单一计划是供应监测。虽然官方回应可以立即产生抑制作用，但它受到可信度和及时性的影响。心理咨询的干预效果有限，通常需要与其他措施结合使用。（2）干预效果最好的组合策略是“供应监测+官方回应+心理咨询”，最差的是“信息审查和指导+心理咨询”。供应监测是遏制恐慌性购买的关键措施。同时，“信息审查和指导”在组合策略中会产生一定的反作用。最后，通过中国和英国的实例验证了所提出模型的有效性和通用性。
