Mubarik Sumaira, Sharma Rajesh, Hussain Syeda Rija, Iqbal Mujahid, Liu Xiaoxue, Yu Chuanhua
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China.
University School of Management and Entrepreneurship Delhi Technological University Delhi, New Delhi, India.
Front Nutr. 2022 Mar 14;9:847920. doi: 10.3389/fnut.2022.847920. eCollection 2022.
Amidst the rising breast cancer burden in Asia, we aim to predict the future mortality risk due to breast cancer and identify the risk-attributable deaths for breast cancer among East and South Asian countries.
We used country-level data to predict the trends in the next decade relating to female breast cancer mortality by employing data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used the stochastic mortality modeling and prediction techniques to forecast the age-specific and risk-attributable breast cancer mortality trends at the regional and national levels of East and South Asia.
The number of deaths caused by the breast cancer is predicted to increase in East and South Asian countries in the next decade (2020-2030). Age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of breast cancer is predicted to increase by 7.0% from 9.20/100,000 (95% CI: 6.04-12.12) in 1990 to 9.88/100,000 (95% CI: 7.12-11.4) in 2030 in East Asia, and about 35% increase from 13.4/100,000 (95% CI: 9.21-16.02) in 1990 to 18.1/100,000 (95% CI: 13.23-21.10) in 2030 in South Asia. At the national level, the highest percent change in ASDR between 1990 and 2030 was reported in Pakistan (a 62% increase) and Nepal (a 47% increase). The highest percent change in breast cancer mortality between 2020 and 2030 for females of age group 80-84 years was observed in Pakistan [21.6, (95% CI, 20.6-94.7)], followed by Afghanistan [13.3 (4.0-80.8)], and Nepal [36.6 (11.1-125.7)] as compared to the other countries. In the females of aged 50-80 years, the predicted death rates were associated with high body mass index, high-fasting plasma glucose, and diet high in red meat, across the majority of countries under study. Furthermore, reductions in percent change in mortality rates occurred in several countries with increases in sociodemographic index (SDI), notably across high SDI countries.
Breast cancer mortality risk varies substantially across East and South Asian countries with higher mortality risk in low/middle SDI countries. Early detection using screening, awareness among females and health workers, and cost-effective and timely treatment of patients with breast cancer is vital in stemming the tide of breast cancer in the next decade.
在亚洲乳腺癌负担不断上升的背景下，我们旨在预测未来因乳腺癌导致的死亡风险，并确定东亚和南亚国家中可归因于乳腺癌的死亡人数。
我们利用国家层面的数据，通过采用《2019年全球疾病负担》研究中1990年至2019年的数据，来预测未来十年女性乳腺癌死亡率的趋势。我们使用随机死亡率建模和预测技术，来预测东亚和南亚地区及国家层面按年龄划分的以及可归因于风险的乳腺癌死亡率趋势。
预计在未来十年（2020 - 2030年），东亚和南亚国家因乳腺癌导致的死亡人数将会增加。东亚地区乳腺癌的年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）预计将从1990年的9.20/10万（95%可信区间：6.04 - 12.12）上升7.0%，至2030年的9.88/10万（95%可信区间：7.12 - 11.4）；南亚地区预计将从1990年的13.4/10万（95%可信区间：9.21 - 16.02）上升约35%，至2030年的18.1/10万（95%可信区间：13.23 - 21.10）。在国家层面，1990年至2030年间ASDR变化百分比最高的是巴基斯坦（上升62%）和尼泊尔（上升47%）。在2020年至2030年间，80 - 84岁年龄组女性乳腺癌死亡率变化百分比最高的是巴基斯坦[21.6，（95%可信区间，20.6 - 94.7）]，其次是阿富汗[13.3（4.0 - 80.8）]和尼泊尔[36.6（11.1 - 125.7）]，与其他国家相比。在50 - 80岁的女性中，在大多数研究的国家中，预测死亡率与高体重指数、高空腹血糖水平以及高红肉饮食有关。此外，在一些社会人口指数（SDI）上升的国家，死亡率变化百分比有所下降，特别是在高SDI国家。
东亚和南亚国家的乳腺癌死亡风险差异很大，低/中等SDI国家的死亡风险更高。通过筛查进行早期检测、提高女性和卫生工作者的意识以及对乳腺癌患者进行具有成本效益和及时的治疗，对于在未来十年遏制乳腺癌的趋势至关重要。
