Pandey Prashant, Chu Yu-Ming, Gómez-Aguilar J F, Jahanshahi Hadi, Aly Ayman A
Department of Mathematical Sciences Indian Institute of Technology (BHU), Varanasi 221005, India.
Department of Mathematics Government M.G.M. P.G. College, Itarsi 461111, India.
Results Phys. 2021 Jul;26:104286. doi: 10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104286. Epub 2021 May 19.
In this paper, we investigate the fractional epidemic mathematical model and dynamics of COVID-19. The Wuhan city of China is considered as the origin of the corona virus. The novel corona virus is continuously spread its range of effectiveness in nearly all corners of the world. Here we analyze that under what parameters and conditions it is possible to slow the speed of spreading of corona virus. We formulate a transmission dynamical model where it is assumed that some portion of the people generates the infections, which is affected by the quarantine and latent time. We study the effect of various parameters of corona virus through the fractional mathematical model. The Laguerre collocation technique is used to deal with the concerned mathematical model numerically. In order to deal with the dynamics of the novel corona virus we collect the experimental data from 15th-21st April, 2020 of Maharashtra state, India. We analyze the effect of various parameters on the numerical solutions by graphical comparison for fractional order as well as integer order. The pictorial presentation of the variation of different parameters used in model are depicted for upper and lower solution both.
在本文中，我们研究了COVID-19的分数阶流行病数学模型及动力学。中国武汉市被视为新冠病毒的起源地。这种新型冠状病毒在世界几乎所有角落不断扩大其影响范围。在此我们分析在何种参数和条件下有可能减缓冠状病毒的传播速度。我们建立了一个传播动力学模型，假设一部分人会产生感染，这受到隔离和潜伏时间的影响。我们通过分数阶数学模型研究冠状病毒各种参数的影响。采用拉盖尔配置技术对相关数学模型进行数值处理。为了研究新型冠状病毒的动力学，我们收集了印度马哈拉施特拉邦2020年4月15日至21日的实验数据。我们通过分数阶和整数阶的图形比较来分析各种参数对数值解的影响。同时给出了模型中不同参数变化的图形展示，包括上解和下解。
