Liu Xue, Ma Shoufeng, Tian Junfang, Jia Ning, Li Geng
Institute of Systems Engineering, College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.
Energy Policy. 2015 Oct;85:253-270. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.06.007. Epub 2015 Jun 18.
With the accelerating process of urbanization, developing countries are facing growing pressure to pursue energy savings and emission reductions, especially in urban passenger transport. In this paper, we built a Beijing urban passenger transport carbon model, including an economy subsystem, population subsystem, transport subsystem, and energy consumption and CO emissions subsystem using System Dynamics. Furthermore, we constructed a variety of policy scenarios based on management experience in Beijing. The analysis showed that priority to the development of public transport (PDPT) could significantly increase the proportion of public transport locally and would be helpful in pursuing energy savings and emission reductions as well. Travel demand management (TDM) had a distinctive effect on energy savings and emission reductions in the short term, while technical progress (TP) was more conducive to realizing emission reduction targets. Administrative rules and regulations management (ARM) had the best overall effect of the individual policies on both energy savings and emission reductions. However, the effect of comprehensive policy (CP) was better than any of the individual policies pursued separately. Furthermore, the optimal implementation sequence of each individual policy in CP was TP→PDPT→TDM→ARM.
随着城市化进程的加速，发展中国家在追求节能减排方面面临着越来越大的压力，尤其是在城市客运领域。在本文中，我们使用系统动力学构建了一个北京城市客运碳模型，该模型包括经济子系统、人口子系统、交通子系统以及能源消耗和碳排放子系统。此外，我们根据北京的管理经验构建了多种政策情景。分析表明，优先发展公共交通（PDPT）可以显著提高当地公共交通的比例，也有助于实现节能减排。出行需求管理（TDM）在短期内对节能减排有显著效果，而技术进步（TP）更有利于实现减排目标。行政规章制度管理（ARM）在各项政策中对节能减排的总体效果最佳。然而，综合政策（CP）的效果优于任何单独实施的单项政策。此外，CP中各项单项政策的最优实施顺序为TP→PDPT→TDM→ARM。
