Siller-Clavel Pablo, Badano Ernesto I, Villarreal-Guerrero Federico, Prieto-Amparán Jesús A, Pinedo-Alvarez Alfredo, Corrales-Lerma Raúl, Álvarez-Holguín Alan, Hernández-Quiroz Nathalie S
Facultad de Zootecnia y Ecología, Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua, Periférico Francisco R. Almada km. 1, Chihuahua 31453, Mexico.
IPICYT División de Ciencias Ambientales, Instituto Potosino de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica, Camino a la Presa San José 2055, Colonia Lomas 4a Sección, San Luis Potosí 78216, SLP, Mexico.
Plants (Basel). 2022 Apr 26;11(9):1160. doi: 10.3390/plants11091160.
In Mexico, buffelgrass () was introduced in the middle of the 20th century. Currently, buffelgrass has become an invasive species and has colonized various ecosystems in the country. In addition to its invasive capacity, climate change is a factor that has to be taken into account when considering how to effectively manage and control this species. The climatic niche models (CNM) and their projections for climate change scenarios allow for estimating the extent of biological invasions. Our study aimed to calibrate a CNM for buffelgrass in Mexico under the current climatic conditions and to project the extent of its biological invasion under climate change scenarios. For that, we used MaxEnt to generate the current CNM and to detect if climate change could cause future changes, we then evaluated the distribution patterns over the periods of 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100 for all the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Linear regressions were used to compare the outputs between current and future scenarios. Under the current climate, the CNM estimated that 42.2% of the continental surface of Mexico is highly suitable for buffelgrass. The regression analyses indicated no effects from climate change on the distribution of buffelgrass. Moreover, when the projected period is further in the future, and when the SSPs intensify, the surface of suitable areas for the species increases. These analyses clearly suggest Mexico is facing a biological invasion from buffelgrass, which may represent a threat to native biodiversity.
在墨西哥，水牛草（）于20世纪中叶被引入。目前，水牛草已成为一种入侵物种，并在该国的各种生态系统中定殖。除了其入侵能力外，在考虑如何有效管理和控制该物种时，气候变化也是一个必须考虑的因素。气候生态位模型（CNM）及其对气候变化情景的预测有助于估计生物入侵的程度。我们的研究旨在校准当前气候条件下墨西哥水牛草的CNM，并预测气候变化情景下其生物入侵的程度。为此，我们使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）生成当前的CNM，并检测气候变化是否会导致未来的变化，然后我们评估了所有共享社会经济路径（SSP）在2041 - 2060年、2061 - 2080年和2081 - 2100年期间的分布模式。使用线性回归比较当前和未来情景的输出。在当前气候条件下，CNM估计墨西哥大陆表面42.2%的区域非常适合水牛草生长。回归分析表明气候变化对水牛草的分布没有影响。此外，当预测期更远，且SSP增强时，该物种适宜区域的面积会增加。这些分析清楚地表明，墨西哥正面临来自水牛草的生物入侵，这可能对当地生物多样性构成威胁。
