Yang Ming, Zhao Haoxiang, Xian Xiaoqing, Wang Rui, Yang Nianwan, Chen Li, Liu Wan-Xue
State Key Laboratory for Biology of Plant Diseases and Insect Pests, Institute of Plant Protection, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science, Beijing, China.
School of Life Sciences, Hebei University, Baoding, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2023 Feb 2;14:1113567. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2023.1113567. eCollection 2023.
The establishment of invasive alien plants (IAPs) is primarily driven by climate warming and human activities, and their populations have a negative impact on agricultural economics, ecological systems, and human health. and are critical IAPs in China because they reduce the quality of cereal grains and decrease wheat yields. is a winter-temperate weed that spreads easily and is poisonous to humans and animals. is resistant to herbicides, has a high reproductive rate, and frequently grows in wheat. Both species have been listed in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China's management catalog since 2006.
In the present study, the historical occurrence and invasion of each species were collected and reconstructed, which showed that the population outbreak of began in 2010, whereas that of began in 2000. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the geographical distributions of and were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s and 2050s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5).
The mean AUC values were 0.867 and 0.931 for and , respectively. Human influence index (HII), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) were the most significant variables for , whereas human influence index, temperature seasonality (standard deviation×100) (bio4), and annual mean temperature (bio1) were the critical environmental variables for Suitable habitat areas in China for and currently covered total areas of 125 × 10 and 235 × 10 km, respectively. Future suitable areas of reached the maximum under SSP2-4.5, from 2021 to 2060, whereas for they reached the maximum under SSP5-8.5, from 2021 to 2060. Furthermore, the overlap area under the current climate conditions for and was approximately 90 × 10 km, mainly located in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei. The overlap areas decreased in the 2030s, increased in the 2050s, and reached a maximum under SSP1-2.6 (or SSP2-4.5) with an approximate area of 104 × 10 km. The centroid of in Henan was transferred to the southwest, whereas for it transferred to higher latitudes in the northeast.
Our findings provide a practical reference for the early warning, control, and management of these two destructive IAP populations in China.
外来入侵植物的定殖主要受气候变暖和人类活动驱动，其种群对农业经济、生态系统和人类健康产生负面影响。节节麦和毒麦是中国的重要外来入侵植物，因为它们会降低谷物品质并减少小麦产量。节节麦是一种冬性杂草，易于传播，对人和动物有毒。毒麦具有抗除草剂特性，繁殖率高，且常生长于小麦田中。自2006年起，这两个物种均被列入中华人民共和国农业农村部的管理名录。
在本研究中，收集并重建了每个物种的历史发生和入侵情况，结果表明节节麦的种群爆发始于2010年，而毒麦的种群爆发始于2000年。利用最优MaxEnt模型，基于筛选出的物种出现情况和环境变量，对当前以及2030年代和2050年代的三种未来情景（即SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5）下节节麦和毒麦的地理分布进行了预测。
节节麦和毒麦的平均AUC值分别为0.867和0.931。人类影响指数（HII）、最冷月平均温度（bio11）和最冷月降水量（bio19）是节节麦的最显著变量，而人类影响指数、温度季节性（标准差×100）（bio4）和年平均温度（bio1）是毒麦的关键环境变量。中国目前节节麦和毒麦的适宜栖息地面积分别为125×10⁴平方千米和235×10⁴平方千米。节节麦的未来适宜面积在2021年至2060年的SSP2-4.情景下达到最大，而毒麦的未来适宜面积在2021年至2060年的SSP5-8.5情景下达到最大。此外，在当前气候条件下，节节麦和毒麦的重叠面积约为90×10⁴平方千米主要位于湖北、安徽、江苏、山东、河南、陕西、山西和河北。重叠面积在2030年代减少在2050年代增加，并在SSP1-2.6（或SSP2-4.5）情景下达到最大，面积约为104×10⁴平方千米。节节麦在河南的分布中心向西南转移，而毒麦的分布中心向东北更高纬度转移。
我们的研究结果为中国这两种具有破坏性的外来入侵植物种群的预警、控制和管理提供了实际参考。
