Food Environment and Consumer Behavior, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cali-Palmira, Cali, Colombia.
DevTech Systems Inc, Arlington, Virginia, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 May 18;17(5):e0264729. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0264729. eCollection 2022.
The connection between international trade and food systems (un)sustainability is both contentious and critical for policy work supporting progress towards achieving the twin goals of hunger alleviation and dietary health while improving the overall sustainability of development. We characterize the food system using a set of metrics based upon the EAT-Lancet commission dietary guidelines for both over- and under-consumption of different foods to assess country-level dietary health and sustainability in tandem. Using a partial equilibrium model of agricultural production and trade, we then project the functioning of the global agricultural system to 2050 and calculate the metrics for that year. For most regions we find increased overconsumption above the expert-defined healthy and sustainable diet thresholds, with more limited progress towards closing dietary health and sustainability gaps where they currently exist. Trade influences this dynamic into the future under certain socioeconomic conditions, and we find that under a "business as usual" trade environment, future agricultural import profiles continue to be misaligned with dietary health and sustainability outcomes, suggesting the potential for early intervention in trade policy as a means to positively influence food system outcomes.
国际贸易与食物系统（不可）持续性之间的联系，对支持实现缓解饥饿和促进饮食健康这一双重目标，同时提高发展可持续性的政策工作来说，至关重要，但同时也颇具争议。我们使用基于 EAT-柳叶刀委员会饮食指南的一组指标来描述食物系统，这些指标既涵盖了食物摄入过多，也涵盖了摄入不足的情况，以此来评估各国在饮食健康和可持续性方面的情况。然后，我们利用农业生产和贸易的局部均衡模型，对 2050 年全球农业系统的运行情况进行预测，并计算当年的各项指标。我们发现，对于大多数地区来说，人们的食物摄入均超过了专家界定的健康和可持续饮食的标准，而在那些目前存在饮食健康和可持续性差距的地区，这方面的进展则较为有限。在某些社会经济条件下，贸易会对这种动态发展产生影响，我们发现，在“按部就班”的贸易环境下，未来的农业进口结构仍与饮食健康和可持续性的结果不匹配，这表明贸易政策可能需要进行早期干预，以积极影响食物系统的结果。
