Benton Tim G
School of Biology University of Leeds Leeds LS2 9JT UK.
Energy, Environment and Resources Department The Royal Institute of International Affairs Chatham House, 10 St James's Square London SW1Y 4LE UK.
EFSA J. 2019 Jul 8;17(Suppl 1):e170703. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2019.e170703. eCollection 2019 Jul.
The food system was developed around a set of policy drivers to make food cheaper and more available, these included promoting agricultural productivity and global trade to increase the availability of food. However, as has been recognised by a plethora of recent papers and reports, these factors have also led to a food system that is unsustainable through its impacts on human health (particularly the growing obesity epidemic) and the environment (e.g. as a major driver of climate change). The world is changing at an unprecedented rate, and the food system is becoming increasingly 'just in time', spatially extended, and dependent on more facilitating sectors (water, land, transport, finance, cyber, etc.). This produces a degree of systemic fragility that drivers (like demand) can interact with events (e.g. a climate impact) to create the opportunity for large-scale shifts in the way the world works. Given the unsustainability of the food system, and the uncertainty of how it may evolve, scenario analysis can be a useful tool for imagining plausible futures as an aid to unlocking 'business as unusual' thinking. Summarising a number of recent processes, I describe scenarios of countries' food systems shaped by changing patterns of trade and changing dietary patterns.
食品系统是围绕一系列政策驱动因素发展起来的，目的是使食品更便宜、更易获取，这些因素包括提高农业生产力和促进全球贸易以增加食品供应。然而，正如最近大量论文和报告所指出的那样，这些因素也导致了一个不可持续的食品系统，因为它对人类健康（尤其是日益严重的肥胖流行）和环境（例如作为气候变化的主要驱动因素）产生了影响。世界正以前所未有的速度变化，食品系统变得越来越“即时化”、空间范围不断扩大，并且依赖于更多辅助部门（水、土地、运输、金融、网络等）。这产生了一定程度的系统脆弱性，驱动因素（如需求）可能与事件（例如气候影响）相互作用，从而为世界运行方式的大规模转变创造机会。鉴于食品系统的不可持续性以及其未来发展的不确定性，情景分析可以作为一种有用的工具，用于设想合理的未来，以帮助开启“非比寻常”的思维方式。总结近期的一些进程，我描述了受贸易模式变化和饮食模式变化影响的各国食品系统情景。
