Electronic Information School, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Sensors (Basel). 2022 Apr 24;22(9):3264. doi: 10.3390/s22093264.
Residential-level short-term load forecasting (STLF) is significant for power system operation. Data-driven forecasting models, especially machine-learning-based models, are sensitive to the amount of data. However, privacy and security concerns raised by supervision departments and users limit the data for sharing. Meanwhile, the limited data from the newly built houses are not sufficient to support building a powerful model. Another problem is that the data from different houses are in a non-identical and independent distribution (non-IID), which makes the general model fail in predicting accurate load for the specific house. Even though we can build a model corresponding to each house, it costs a large computation time. We first propose a federated transfer learning approach applied in STLF, deep federated adaptation (DFA), to deal with the aforementioned problems. This approach adopts the federated learning architecture to train a global model without undermining privacy, and then the model leverage multiple kernel variant of maximum mean discrepancies (MK-MMD) to fine-tune the global model, which makes the model adapted to the specific house's prediction task. Experimental results on the real residential datasets show that DFA has the best forecasting performance compared with other baseline models and the federated architecture of DFA has a remarkable superiority in computation time. The framework of DFA is extended with alternative transfer learning methods and all of them achieve good performances on STLF.
住宅短期负荷预测(STLF)对于电力系统运行具有重要意义。数据驱动的预测模型,特别是基于机器学习的模型,对数据量非常敏感。然而,监管部门和用户提出的隐私和安全问题限制了数据的共享。同时,新建房屋的数据有限,不足以支持建立强大的模型。另一个问题是,不同房屋的数据分布是非同分布和独立的(非IID),这使得通用模型无法准确预测特定房屋的负荷。即使我们可以为每个房屋建立一个模型,它也需要大量的计算时间。我们首先提出了一种应用于 STLF 的联邦迁移学习方法,即深度联邦自适应(DFA),以解决上述问题。该方法采用联邦学习架构来训练全局模型,而不会损害隐私,然后使用多个核变异最大均值差异(MK-MMD)来微调全局模型,使模型适应特定房屋的预测任务。在真实住宅数据集上的实验结果表明,DFA 与其他基线模型相比具有最佳的预测性能,并且 DFA 的联邦架构在计算时间方面具有显著优势。DFA 的框架扩展了替代迁移学习方法,它们在 STLF 上都取得了良好的性能。
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