Department of Mathematics, University of Buea, PO Box 63, Buea, South West Region, Cameroon.
Mathematics and Applied Mathematics Department, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park, Kingsway Campus, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Comput Math Methods Med. 2022 May 13;2022:4150043. doi: 10.1155/2022/4150043. eCollection 2022.
The role of human behaviour in the dynamics of infectious diseases cannot be underestimated. A clear understanding of how human behaviour influences the spread of infectious diseases is critical in establishing and designing control measures. To study the role that human behaviour plays in Ebola disease dynamics, in this paper, we design an Ebola virus disease model with disease transmission dynamics based on a new exponential nonlinear incidence function. This new incidence function that captures the reduction in disease transmission due to human behaviour innovatively considers the efficacy and the speed of behaviour change. The model's steady states are determined and suitable Lyapunov functions are built. The proofs of the global stability of equilibrium points are presented. To demonstrate the utility of the model, we fit the model to Ebola virus disease data from Liberia and Sierra Leone. The results which are comparable to existing findings from the outbreak of 2014 - 2016 show a better fit when the efficacy and the speed of behaviour change are higher. A rapid and efficacious behaviour change as a control measure to rapidly control an Ebola virus disease epidemic is advocated. Consequently, this model has implications for the management and control of future Ebola virus disease outbreaks.
人类行为在传染病动力学中的作用不可低估。清楚了解人类行为如何影响传染病的传播对于制定和设计控制措施至关重要。为了研究人类行为在埃博拉病毒病动态中的作用，本文设计了一个基于新指数非线性发病率函数的埃博拉病毒病模型，以研究疾病传播动力学。这个新的发病率函数通过创新地考虑行为改变的效果和速度，捕捉了由于人类行为导致的疾病传播减少。确定了模型的平衡点，并建立了合适的李雅普诺夫函数。给出了平衡点全局稳定性的证明。为了演示模型的实用性，我们将模型拟合到利比里亚和塞拉利昂的埃博拉病毒病数据。结果与 2014-2016 年爆发期间的现有发现相媲美，当行为改变的效果和速度较高时，拟合效果更好。提倡迅速有效的行为改变作为控制措施，以迅速控制埃博拉病毒病疫情。因此，该模型对未来埃博拉病毒病爆发的管理和控制具有重要意义。
