Data Center of Traditional Chinese Medicine, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences, Beijing 100700, China.
School of Computer and Information Technology, Beijing Jiaotong University, Bejing 100044, China.
J Tradit Chin Med. 2022 Jun;42(3):472-478. doi: 10.19852/j.cnki.jtcm.20220408.001.
To explore the advantages of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) in "prevention" and "control" of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
In this paper, we wish to estimate the effect on the virus transmission of scenarios assuming TCM were used to build the first defense line at the very early stage of the spread in Wuhan. We therefore first developed a classic susceptible infected removed (susceptible infected removed, SIR) transmission model based on the national data in China and then updated it to a TCM-SIR model to assess the potential impact of such assumptions, i.e. the underlying risk of lives lost and social economy loss.
(a) With the nationwide community lockdown, the risk value was from 90 000 to 250 000 without TCM intervention and the risk value was from 70 000 to 220 000 with TCM intervention; (b) Based the risk assessment method, we forecasted that the infections peak would be 58016 without TCM intervention, which happened on February 17 2020. However, the infections peak would be 45713 with TCM intervention, which happened on 16 February 2020.
The adoption of nationwide community lockdown is conducive to timely control the epidemic and protect people's lives and safety. At the same time, we can get lower infections if TCM intervention can be considered. We can also get the benefits from TCM prevention of COVID-19 pandemic by the basic number of infections.
探讨中医药在 2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行“预防”和“控制”中的优势。
在本文中，我们希望估计在 COVID-19 在武汉传播初期使用中医药构建第一道防线的情况下对病毒传播的影响。因此，我们首先基于中国的全国数据开发了一个经典的易感者-感染者-移除（susceptible infected removed，SIR）传播模型，然后将其更新为 TCM-SIR 模型，以评估这些假设的潜在影响，即生命损失和社会经济损失的潜在风险。
（a）在全国社区封锁的情况下，如果没有中医药干预，风险值在 90000 到 250000 之间，如果有中医药干预，风险值在 70000 到 220000 之间；（b）基于风险评估方法，我们预测如果没有中医药干预，感染人数峰值将达到 58016，发生在 2020 年 2 月 17 日。然而，如果有中医药干预，感染人数峰值将达到 45713，发生在 2020 年 2 月 16 日。
采取全国性社区封锁措施有利于及时控制疫情，保护人民生命安全。同时，如果考虑中医药干预，可以降低感染人数。我们也可以通过基本感染人数从中医药预防 COVID-19 大流行中获益。
