Wildlife Conservation Society, Viet Nam Country Program, Ha Noi 100000, Vietnam.
Wildlife Conservation Society, Global Conservation Program, Bronx, NY 10460, USA.
Viruses. 2022 May 20;14(5):1100. doi: 10.3390/v14051100.
Climate variability and anomalies are known drivers of the emergence and outbreaks of infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the potential association between climate factors and anomalies, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and land surface temperature anomalies, as well as the emergence and spillover events of bat-borne viral diseases in humans and livestock in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula. Our findings from time series analyses, logistic regression models, and structural equation modelling revealed that the spillover patterns of the Nipah virus in Bangladesh and the Hendra virus in Australia were differently impacted by climate variability and with different time lags. We also used event coincidence analysis to show that the emergence events of most bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula were statistically associated with ENSO climate anomalies. Spillover patterns of the Nipah virus in Bangladesh and the Hendra virus in Australia were also significantly associated with these events, although the pattern and co-influence of other climate factors differed. Our results suggest that climate factors and anomalies may create opportunities for virus spillover from bats to livestock and humans. Ongoing climate change and the future intensification of El Niño events will therefore potentially increase the emergence and spillover of bat-borne viral diseases in the Asia-Pacific region and the Arabian Peninsula.
气候变异性和异常是传染病出现和爆发的已知驱动因素。在这项研究中，我们调查了气候因素和异常（包括厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）和陆地表面温度异常）与亚太地区和阿拉伯半岛人类和牲畜中蝙蝠传播病毒疾病的出现和溢出事件之间的潜在关联。我们通过时间序列分析、逻辑回归模型和结构方程模型得出的研究结果表明，孟加拉国尼帕病毒和澳大利亚亨德拉病毒的溢出模式受到气候变异性的不同影响，且存在不同的时间滞后。我们还使用事件巧合分析表明，亚太地区和阿拉伯半岛大多数蝙蝠传播病毒疾病的出现事件与 ENSO 气候异常具有统计学关联。孟加拉国尼帕病毒和澳大利亚亨德拉病毒的溢出模式也与这些事件显著相关，尽管其他气候因素的模式和共同影响不同。我们的研究结果表明，气候因素和异常可能为病毒从蝙蝠向牲畜和人类的溢出创造机会。因此，持续的气候变化和未来厄尔尼诺事件的加剧将可能增加亚太地区和阿拉伯半岛蝙蝠传播病毒疾病的出现和溢出。
