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新冠肺炎的传播动力学模型:喀麦隆的情况

A transmission dynamics model of COVID-19: Case of Cameroon.

作者信息

Tadmon Calvin, Foko Severin

机构信息

Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Faculty of Science, University of Dschang, P.O. Box: 67, Dschang, Cameroon.

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Strada Costiera 11, 34151, Trieste, Italy.

出版信息

Infect Dis Model. 2022 Jun;7(2):211-249. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.002. Epub 2022 May 24.

Abstract

In this work, we propose and investigate an ordinary differential equations model describing the spread of COVID-19 in Cameroon. The model takes into account the asymptomatic, unreported symptomatic, quarantine, hospitalized individuals and the amount of virus in the environment, for evaluating their impact on the transmission of the disease. After establishing the basic properties of the model, we compute the control reproduction number and show that the disease dies out whenever and is endemic whenever . Furthermore, an optimal control problem is derived and investigated theoretically by mainly relying on Pontryagin's maximum principle. We illustrate the theoretical analysis by presenting some graphical results.

摘要

在这项工作中,我们提出并研究了一个描述新冠肺炎在喀麦隆传播的常微分方程模型。该模型考虑了无症状、未报告的有症状、隔离、住院个体以及环境中的病毒量,以评估它们对疾病传播的影响。在建立模型的基本性质之后,我们计算了控制再生数,并表明当 时疾病会消失,而当 时疾病会流行。此外,通过主要依靠庞特里亚金极大值原理推导出一个最优控制问题并进行了理论研究。我们通过给出一些图形结果来说明理论分析。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d38b/9162954/1d8610a71b73/gr1.jpg

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